Mnuchin is Wrong About Both COVID-19 & the Recession

He recently claimed---
1.  The economy should rebound once the new virus is "contained".  [There are two assumptions in that view:  the bug will be contained; and our economy will or should rebound.]
2.  The designation, Recession, is not "terribly relevant" because it's the gov't that is effectively shutting down large parts of the economy.  The downturn is not due to underlying economic conditions.  Instead, it's due to measures necessary to slow down the spread of the virus.
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All the above sounds reasonable, but is it?  Consider the following.

1.  Containment does not mean eradication.  It means limiting the virus to a smaller number of areas.  The way things are looking, it's too late for that.  [Nevertheless, "flattening the curve" is important.]  This virus, officially designated by WHO as SARS CoV-2 or SARS 2, spreads easily and rapidly.  [SARS = Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.]  Too many younger people (in particular) appear to be spreading it all over...because, since most cases of infection are mild to moderate, the younger crowd seems to think it's no big deal.  The fact is, covid-19 (SARS CoV-2) is spreading like wildfire both here and globally.  Containment is not likely.  The best we can hope for is slowing the spread and rate of infection (flattening the curve), thus giving the medical establishment time to get caught up, so to speak.  That means rapid testing, isolation, and more PPE (Personal Protective Equipment...for health care staff).

2.  The slow initial response re testing, and the continued slowness of testing, means that this virus is now in all 50 States here...and in people who currently are showing no symptoms whatsoever.  Add to that the instances where people simply are not practicing social distancing at all.  Except for the three cities with large numbers of known infections, I'm mostly convinced that too many people (everywhere else) are not taking proper precautions.  I know for sure they're not in this little valley where I live.

3.  An unknown number of people infected with this bug are going to work.  They're showing no symptoms yet.  Some people with symptoms are going to work anyway; they have little financial choice.

4.  Bottom line re covid-19 in the USA:  it already has become widely spread, and continues to do so.

5.  The Administration is reluctant to use the word, Recession (which we're already in); arguably, we're rapidly approaching a full-blown, economic Depression.  [The 1930's Great Depression, which lasted about ten years, was not so named until halfway through it.]  There are at least two economies in the USA:  one for the top 20% (or so) of income earners; and one for the bottom 80%.  When Trump & Crew refer to "our great economy, the greatest in our history", they're referencing the economy of the top tier, not that of the overwhelming majority of Americans.  Even then, they're inaccurate.  Our greatest economy was during the Golden Age of American Capitalism, from about 1946 to the "Nixon Shock" in 1971.  The Trump years aren't even in the same universe, never mind ballpark, as that economic boom.  By the way, mega biz was taxed at up to 90% then... and they still prospered.

6.  In several fairly recent past posts, I've detailed the reasons for the contention immediately above.  No time or energy to repeat all that, but here's a partial, truncated list of those reasons.

a.  Record national/public, corporate, and personal DEBT...and it's all coming home to roost.  U.S. TOTAL Debt is now over $76.8 trillion.

b.  50% of workers in the USA make less than $33,882 per year.  The Middle Class continues to shrink.  (See:  usdebtclock.org)

c.  The Gov't Jobs Report fails to identify how many jobs are part-time, temporary, or both.  Too many people are struggling with two or more jobs.

d.  The unemployment stats put out by the Feds are always way too low.  See this post:  http://individualsovereignty.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-real-state-of-union-rather-than.html

e.  Many countries are dumping Dollars, forming their own currency exchange agreements, and their own Trade agreements.  Trump has so alienated them that they are by-passing the USA.  Even prior to The Don, the same thing was going on in order to oppose American hegemony.  We are becoming isolated in the world economy.  Other countries are tired of our Govt's bullying.

In addition---

7.  Mega Banks and other Mega Corporations do little to nothing to help increase the number of good-paying jobs and manufacturing in this country.  Despite the current Admin's rhetoric, factories & jobs continue to flow South or overseas.

8.  Bizarre financial Derivatives continue to threaten our Financial Sector and/or our economy and the world's, as well.  Essentially nothing is being done to correct that situation.

9.  Mega monopolization in the Business world is stifling small businesses in the USA.

10.  Rampant Financialization (since the 1970's) continues to destroy jobs and manufacturing, suck up Middle and Lower Class income, and cause an exponential rise in income inequality.

11.  Bottom line re Recession:  even without the covid-19 trigger, we were right on the cusp of the overdue Recession.  The virus wasn't the cause of the Recession we're in now; it was merely the trigger.  The causes I just listed above.  Our economy is not resilient.  Even the workers are always in a precarious situation--- insecure jobs, poor benefits, essentially flat wages, low wages, obscene health care costs, etc.  The economist, Guy Standing, refers to them being in the Precariat Class.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnYhZCUYOxs
Even people who are doing okay, living paycheck to paycheck, have little to no way of saving for a rainy day.  The Establishment doesn't want them to save.  It wants them to spend, spend, spend... and to increase their debt... so that the consumer society can expand, expand, expand.  Debt will be our downfall.

12.  Finally, on both the disease and economic fronts, this is not about only the USA.  It's worldwide.  On the economic front, most of the "Developed" countries (not only here in the U.S.) are on the cusp of--- or already in ---a Recession.  We in the USA cannot be unaffected by that.  The next Depression, like the last, will be worldwide.
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p.s.  The reason the Dems in Congress haven't yet (as of about 7 AM) agreed to pass the COVID-19 Relief Bill--- or whatever it's called ---is because the money going to corporations has too few to zero conditions on it.  Remember the last Bailout Congress passed re the Mega Banks?  No restrictions as to use of that money.  Did they loan it out to stimulate the economy?  Answer:  very little of it.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

FINALLY---Someone in Congress Asks the Right Question

U.S. Congressional Representative, Ted Lieu of California, asked a Trump Admin official (in a Hearing) the following:  "Under the Constitution, does the President have the authority to declare war?".  The Trump guy hemmed, hawed, beat around the bush, and never answered the query.  Then Rep. Lieu said he would make it easy:  "The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war, right?".  More hemming & hawing from the U.S. Envoy to Iran.  Kudos to Representative Lieu.

Those who rely on the War Powers Resolution (often called the War Powers Act), or any other "resolution", to declare war are violating the Constitution and their Oath of Office.  In our system of government, it isn't up to the President to decide when to go to war.  The Founders believed that could be subject to abuse, and so they made certain that only Congress had that power.  At least then, We the People supposedly would be represented in the decision.  Plus, Congress was not given the authority to transfer that power to the Executive.  The President only has power to manage a war...once Congress has declared war.  Finally, no Law supercedes the U.S. Constitution.

According to recent News reports, Trump & Crew are considering using the 2001 Resolution as authority to go to war with Iran.  That's ludicrous.  Not only is it ludicrous (and illegal) because of the paragraph immediately above, but also because that Resolution had absolutely nothing to do with Iran.  Nothing at all.

The last time Congress declared war was in December, 1941.  Over the decades since then, members of our Gov't have ignored the war clause of Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution of the United States.  That means each of them has violated his/her Oath of Office.  Very few people seem to care.

The case for war with Iran is so flimsy that it really doesn't exist.  The Warmongers' efforts to make the case have a strong stink about them. More importantly, the President does not have the Constitutional authority to declare war on any nation.  Once any part of our bedrock Supreme Law of the Land is by-passed, then the same can happen to any other part.  Hello.  This whole scenario reeks of "The Grand Chessboard:  American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives".  Empire on steroids.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Sanctions Are Acts of War

Modern-day "sanctions" should be thought of as essentially the same as laying siege to a major city in the distant past.  They are acts of war.  Our Fed Government's sanctions relative to Venezuela and Iran are nothing but Empire Building...egregious interference for the purpose of maintaining "American Primacy" in the world.

When a government interferes with another country's economy and finance, and even threatens allies who might not agree with that approach, the whole thing becomes a de facto declaration of war.  In the cases cited above, it's interventionism of the worst kind--- strictly to advance "American Primacy and its geostrategic imperatives".  It's the main reason our Gov't keeps sticking its big nose into the affairs of the Middle East, Central Asia, South America, and Central America.

It appears that both Neoconservatives and Neoliberals look upon Brzezinski's book, The Grand Chessboard (1997), as the Bible in terms of geopolitics and our Neocolonial Empire.  In this Neocolonial Age, our Gov't doesn't have to directly control a country via politics or military force (as in the old colonial times).  Now it can do so indirectly by means of economics, finance, and propaganda.  No matter who is in power in DC, that's the game.  It's wrong, and except for a fairly brief time around the turn of the Twentieth Century (1898-1906 or thereabouts), it's un-American.  [Perhaps I should, but I'm not counting our very early history of so-called "Manifest Destiny", when the Powers-That-Be simply assumed that this whole continent belonged to us...because "God" was on "our side".]

Sanctions can lead to a shooting war.  Here's a message for our Warmongers; it's taken from the Bobby Darin song, "Simple Song of Freedom".
Let it fill the air
Tell the people everywhere
We the People here don't want a war

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The End of American Hegemony is Now on the Horizon

It's difficult to predict whether that end still is a long way off or will happen somewhat quickly...too many variables.  Nevertheless, it is finally visible.  Despite what Oligarchs and those who are propagandized to the hilt may think, the approaching end of the USA's worldwide hegemony is a good thing.

A few years ago the results of either a Gallup or Pew Research Poll (can't recall which) indicated that 80% of the world believed the greatest threat to peace was the USA.  I suppose our Bully Boy, Reality Show, Tweety Bird, Ignoramus, Oval Office Occupier would call those results "fake news"; but then, everything he disagrees with is so named by him. 

China, the rest of Asia (including India), Russia, Iran, large parts of South America (especially Brazil), South Africa, and now even Saudi Arabia, are so fed up with our Govt's HEGEMONY that they are waging an unprecedented economic/financial war on the USA.  They have a good chance of winning it.  First came South America's rejection of our Govt's longstanding policy of Neocolonialism relative to them.  Next was BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, & S. Africa) and their financial revolt, and just recently, we have the PetroYuan...essentially backed by gold.  Finally, beaucoup countries are allowing escape from the "almighty" Dollar via cryptocurrencies.  Dollar-dumping is rife in many, many countries.

We live in interesting times--- we are witnessing the beginning of the end of American Hegemony... especially monetary/financial hegemony.  Our Gov't and its Mega Bank Cronies will do anything legal or illegal to prevent that end.  It all hearkens back to Manifest Destiny and the crimes committed under that "justification".  The main difference between then & now is that our Empire is no longer land-based.  It's now based on control via threats of force, both monetary/financial/economic force and military force.  Most of it is illegal, immoral, unethical, and unconstitutional.

Starting a war won't prevent the end of our hegemony; it only might postpone it.

The Constitutional Republic of the USA is now in name only.  These days, we live in a Fascist State.  According to both FDR & Mussolini, Fascism = the Power of the State married to the Power of BIG Business.  Undeniably, that's the U.S. Gov't both for quite a number of years and presently.

The days of genuine American Conservatism (a big part of which was non-interventionism abroad and non-speculative banking at home) AND genuine American Progressivism (a big part of which was a safety net for the most vulnerable and fairness for all) are mostly gone...long gone.

And so it goes.  

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Corporatist Oligarchs Have Bamboozled the People

Knowing how I believe that few, if any, differences exist between Repubs and Dems (at the highest levels of politics), a CA friend sent me an email showing what he believes are some of the differences.  He ended by asking if I knew of any Repub in favor of the $15 minimum wage.  My response (slightly edited) is found below.

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Not 100% sure, but I think Senator Susan Collins is for $15 per hour.  Many other Repubs AND many Dems are for a raise to $10 - $12, rather than $15.  [Side Note:  In only a two-person household in 1992, I was making $15 an hour...

and barely scraping by back then.  $15/hour is almost nothing nowadays.]

But none of that proves anything; it's like not seeing the forest because of individual trees.  In general, & in the larger scope of things, today's major Parties both are dictatorial in their running of each Party and they're both Corporatist in nature.  They both marginalize any truly Populist candidates, and they kow-tow to Wall Street.

In my opinion, the whole current Repub v. Dem thing is a complete sham...a Divide & Conquer strategy by Oligarchs.  That wasn't true in the past, but it is now.  No one ever will convince me otherwise.  The last genuine Populist to run for national office was George McGovern in 1972.  Sanders is better than most, but I think his attitude toward things like Drone Wars & Foreign Policy in general, stinks.  Even Rand Paul, a blatant Corporatist, has a better Foreign Policy view than Sanders.  Paul is much more of a non-interventionist than almost anyone in DC.  He has been marginalized almost totally because of it.  The same thing happened to Dennis Kucinich on the Dem side.  

Both Dems & Repubs in the top slots want American Hegemony to continue forever.  They all believe we should be the world's Police Force.  Forget about the U.S. Constitution and International Law.  According to the Republicrats & the Demopublicans, the U.S. Gov't can order the overthrow of any Gov't, change any regime, place sanctions on any country, and bomb any nation it so chooses.  It's insanity. 

No-Sir, in the big picture, there's hardly any difference at all between Dems & Repubs at the highest levels when it comes to really significant issues.  In the rare cases when there is a difference on a significant issue, it's usually because one or the other has given in to overwhelming popular protest...but their core, Corporatist beliefs have not changed.  Politicians are sleazy & deceitful that way.

That's how I see it, anyway.  Forty years ago, things were different... but not anymore.  The political paradigm has changed completely.  Unfortunately, most Americans seem to be stuck in the old paradigm of Repubs v. Dems, Right v. Left, etc.  That exists in name only... and is a testament to how thoroughly the Oligarchs have bamboozled the People.

As I've said many times, the new political paradigm is:  the Oligarchy v. the rest of us.  In socioeconomic terms, the Lower Class is growing larger, the Middle Class is shrinking, and the Upper class has increased its income by 700% in the last 30 years.  The two major political Parties are no longer relevant... except as Edward Bernays style Propaganda.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well