"LAST WARNING to Family and Friends"

Below is a recent email I sent (slightly edited).

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RE:  the Financial/Economic Crash---

1.  In the past few days, I've watched the analyses of about a dozen or so well-known financial and/or economic forecasters who have stellar past records (multiple times) re predictions on these topics, people such as Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Charley Munger, Ray Dalio, et al.  The clips were no more than a week old.  Long story short (no time for details):  the probability is extremely high that the Crash will begin this year, and it will be a hard landing.  They all agree, with only minor variations.  All that, plus what I've seen for the past few years, reinforces my belief in a 90%-95% probability of the start of a Crash shortly.  [Or arguably, it already has begun.]  It will be global in effect.

NOTE:  I predicted the same thing for 2016, but my confidence in that forecast was only about 75%.

2.  Also viewed about a dozen precious metals analysts (Jim Rickards, Mike Maloney, et al.) who basically agree with number 1 above, & because of that, most say the probability is extremely high for gold to go to about $2200 and silver to about $35 by the end of the year or perhaps Jan. -Feb.  Then, in the following 1 - 3 years, gold at $4K - $5K and silver at $100 - $300.  [Silver has multiple industrial uses, especially in the High Tech sector, & especially in solar energy...never mind the "store-of-value" monetary attraction.  Demand is increasing.]

I don't follow it, but Bitcoin probably will be at a gazillion $. :)

So, plan accordingly...or not.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

GREAT, innovative article on Gold, Money, & Banking

 The info in the article at the link below is NOT the standard fare found regarding the title above.  I would venture to guess you haven't heard or seen three-fourths of it anywhere.  It's truly ground-breaking.

 https://steadystate.org/money-and-the-steady-state-economy/

The author, Herman E. Daly, died just recently at 84.  He was a giant in Ecological Economics, & pretty much ignored/suppressed by the Establishment.  One of the reasons for that:  he believed "money" is a public utility, & should not be created out of thin air by private banks (which it is, via fractional reserve banking).

R.I.P., Prof. Daly.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Economic and Financial Crash is Just Around the Corner

Best guess--- The Crash probably will be anytime before the end of next year.  No one can predict exactly when.

Today I saw an ad for blue jeans; the price of the britches---$60.

In 1961, similar jeans were $3.95...I know because I remember buying a pair for that price in Ft. Collins, Colorado while I was a student at Colorado State U.  [You remember the damnedest things when you get old:]  So, about four dollars versus sixty dollars; to me, that's hyperinflation...it's already here.  It may be a bit anomalous for hyperinflation because of the long span of time involved, but nevertheless, it seems to me it IS the beast.

Decades of monetary policy from the Fed Reserve have reduced the value of the Dollar from 100 cents in 1913 to about 3 or 4 cents today.  They've purposely debased/devalued the Dollar in order to be able to afford the interest payment on our massive National Debt (ever since that Debt doubled or tripled---can't remember which---during the Reagan years).  They can pay it with ever cheaper dollars.  That's why the Fed is always shooting for 2% inflation... per year. 

Imagine what an ounce of gold would be worth if all the beaches of the world consisted of grains of gold instead of grains of sand.  Whenever the amount of some item is increased in the Market, the price/value of each unit of that item goes down.  Through institutionalized deficit spending, the Fed being the main purchaser of T-Bills (monetizing the Debt), and the horrendous QE for the last 8-9 years, the Fed has made the Dollar almost worthless...by creating huge amounts of it out of thin air.  That's why some jeans are $60 now.  That's why the Fed Budget is in the trillions instead of millions or the low billions.  The Dollar is worth less...a lot less.  One even might say that it's almost worthless.  Of course, the Propaganda from the Powers-That-Be says the Dollar is strong.  What that really means is:  it's the best of the worst.  It's the cleanest dirty shirt...and even that characterization is questionable.

The Gov't always can get more "money".  All it has to do is type digits in a computer.  That's what it does when the Fed Reserve buys Bonds/T-Bills.  Actual currency isn't printed up and handed to the Treasury by the Fed; the Fed simply types the amount onto its Balance Sheet.  It never will "run out".  The problem is that the world is fast losing faith in the value of the Dollar.  We all should be, too.  Countries are dumping the Dollar and bypassing the Dollar right & left.  Those Dollars then come home, which means more inflation, but this time it will be much faster than that from 1961 to the present.  International players such as the IMF and Bank of International Settlements already are looking into replacing the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  Can you blame them?  I think not.

No politician can stop this...it's too late.  We'll survive, but the cost of that survival & recovery will be high.

Don't believe the Elites' current Propaganda.  They're telling bald-faced lies because they're afraid the truth would result in massive panic...including a monumental exodus of capital from the USA.  [To those who think the public & private Powers-That-Be never would lie about such things---please, are you kidding me?  History says otherwise.]

Be Prepared (see previous posts), and Hang in There
p.s.  Your degree of comfort during the real recovery will depend upon your degree of preparation.  And, no, you don't need a bunker & hand grenades; there won't be a massive Mad Max scenario.  The Powers-That-Be would institute Martial Law on a monumental scale before allowing that to happen.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Dollar's Days are Numbered - the Crash, Central Banks, Fiat Currency, & Gold

I'm not an economist, monetary theorist, or anything of the sort; however, I can read and I have a fairly good grasp of Logic.  Consider the following.

1.  The Dollar has been described as the best of the worst houses in a really bad neighborhood.  To one degree or another, all fiat currencies in the world are in deep trouble.  The great, decades-long Fiat Currency Experiment is on the brink of going down in flames.

2.  Supposedly, the USA (& thus the world) ended being on the Gold Standard in 1971.  If that's completely true, why are Central Bankers (except for Canada) so concerned about gold...and especially, the price of gold?  Why is China buying tons of gold per month?  Why are India, Russia, & every other country that can afford it adding to their stockpiles of gold?  Why is the Gov't of the USA keeping any gold at all?  [Especially given the tremendous public debt we've accumulated; it would appear that we have no intention of ever repaying the principal on that debt.]

3.  Deutsche Bank recently confessed to gold (& silver) price-fixing/rigging, and is informing on the other banks in the price-fixing/rigging cartel...including some Mega Banks on Wall Street.

4.  Prices of gold (& silver) have been illegally, artificially suppressed for years because the price of gold (in particular) is an indicator of the health of the Dollar...and of the health of any other fiat currency.  When the price of gold goes up, that means the Dollar has weakened.

5.  Gold is a store of wealth & confidence...confidence in the value of precious metals.  Fiat currency is a store of confidence only...confidence in paper and gov'ts.

6.  I don't recall the details, but just recently, China pegged the value of the Yuan to gold...some sort of benchmark.  It seems obvious that once China has accumulated a sufficient amount of gold, it's going to issue a Gold-Backed Currency...backed to one degree or another.  If and when that happens, that's the end of the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  [Of course, that end can occur in other ways, as well.]

7.  Some people argue that a Gold Standard nowadays is not feasible because of the greatly expanded (compared to, say, 1930 or 1950) money supply versus a finite amount of gold in existence.  As the international economist, Jim Rickards, points out:  that's a fallacious argument because what matters is the price of gold, not the amount.  At $10,000 per ounce, no problem.  As the currency supply expands even more, the price of gold would go up even more.

8.  A new Gold Standard would put a clamp on unrestrained spending by gov'ts...that's why some Oligarchs and most of their minions in gov'ts everywhere are against returning to any kind of Gold Standard.  It appears that China soon may change all that.

9.  Countries already are dumping Dollars, but it's not much more than a trickle compared to what's likely coming.

10.  In addition to all the above, world debt is at $225 trillion...the highest it has ever been, the total value of bizarre financial derivatives out in the Market is now estimated to be about $1.5 quadrillion, Stock Markets are giant Bubbles, unemployment is soaring (our Gov't doesn't have a clue as to what the unemployment rate is...their markers for calculating that are grossly incomplete), the real estate market is a Bubble, manufacturing is declining fairly rapidly, part-time and temporary jobs are on the rise, the Dollar continues to be debased by the Fed, the economy is deflating, real wages either are stagnant or declining, the Middle Class continues to shrink, 51% of American households now earn only $30K or less per year, debt (both public & private) is crushing the Dollar and the economy, the incomes of the Super-Rich continue to increase, the world economy is stagnant, the People are pissed off, and Gov'ts continue to placate everyone with Edward Bernays style Propaganda...but that's not working very well anymore.

11.  To top it off, we're in the beginning stages of a worldwide Economic Crash.  Some analysts say it will be as bad as, or worse than, the 1930's Great Depression.

12.  And finally, several high-level politicians in several different countries appear to be attempting to provoke a major war...that includes some high-level politicians in the USA.  Historically, that's what the Powers-That-Be do when economies are failing and the monetary system is crashing.
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The good news is that educated People everywhere are rising up peacefully and rejecting SSDD by protesting, boycotting, shunning, rejecting, and refusing to be silent.  The Propaganda Kool Aid is being thrown out.  The Sheeple have become the Lions. I suspect that Oligarchs everywhere are beginning to tremble.  All across the political spectrum, We the People (many of us, anyway) have had enough.  It's past time to peacefully dethrone the CRONY Capitalists, Globalization Gurus, and Financialization Elites.  It will be a long haul, but it's do-able.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

So Where's the Economic Crash?

It's unfolding before our eyes.  Despite the Dead Cat Bounce (a horrible term) after the disastrous dip in January, the Crash is proceeding...and worsening...and it's worldwide.  Below is a portion of a Reply I sent to my son, his family, and others regarding a piece he sent me from Greg Hunter's "USA Watchdog.com".  That clip had Ron Kirby of Kirby Analytics in his very latest guest appearance on "USA Watchdog".
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The dollar reset could be right around the corner.  Especially telling was that series of meetings the Fed had, and the meetings with the Pres & VP with the Fed.  Add to that the admission of silver & gold price fixing by the Mega Banks, & the new China Gold Exchange, & the IMF SDR situation (especially involving China), & how the highest levels of our Fed Gov't are trying their damnedest to provoke a war, & how Obama has been working for almost 8 yrs having us construct tactical nuclear weapons (as opposed to strategic), & the fact that the Financial Stability Board of the G-20 approved Bail-Ins for 29 Mega Banks (worldwide), & the fact that the TPP will further deregulate the Financial Sector (both high-level Dems & Repubs support that Agreement), & the fact the War on Cash is accelerating, & the fact that the vast majority of the public appears to believe just about anything the Corporate Media tells them... with all that & more, we're ripe for a disaster.

Nevertheless, I still believe the Oligarchy somehow will pull off preventing it from happening until after the election.  As Kirby puts it, they've been holding together this criminal, fraudulent financial system with "...paper clips & bungee cords" [:)] for a long time.  Maybe they can do it a bit longer.

I see the Oligarchy in America as having 3 main options:

1.  Get us into a major, major war.  As Kirby accurately points out, historically that's what the Ruling Class does when the Financial System is in really deep trouble.  The Bush-Obama Perpetual War has not been enough...it's not big enough.  This, of course, is not a wise option, but that doesn't mean they won't do it.

2.  QE-4...print even more currency.  The Fed buying back the bonds being dumped by China & other Asian countries hasn't been enough.  The Fed might even send checks to individual households...to the People, not just make it available to Mega Banks.  [If that happens, buy every necessary household commodity you can get your hands on...because if that happens, the culmination of the Crash is imminent.]

3.  After the election, bite the bullet & gradually raise interest rates to where they should be.  This will burst the Asset Bubbles & put us into a deep Recession and/or Depression.

I'm sure there are more options, but I see the above as the main ones.

Unfortunately, nothing above will stop the worldwide economic mess from worsening.  We're in a global Economic Crash.  There's been nothing like this since the Great Depression, and prior to that, the Fall of the Roman Empire (which was largely economic).  What's sad is that so many Americans seem to be so tied up in the tribalism of the election cycle that they either don't see the Crash unfolding, or they don't think it's very serious.

I hope Kirby is wrong regarding his time frame, but what he said certainly is possible.

Love,  Dad    p.s.  Don't take on any major debt.  When all this stuff culminates, your income & purchasing power will go down...but debt payments won't.  That's how people in the 1930's were wiped out financially.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Oligarchs Are Trembling on Several Fronts

Open to anyone who knows how to do "library" research, public sources are revealing at a rapid rate how/why the Oligarchs (public & private) are getting extremely worried.  I don't have the time or energy to delineate all their areas of concern, but here are a few.

1.  Guatemala---
There is a peaceful, popular uprising going on there right now.  For the time being, its focus is on corruption in the Gov't, a gov't backed by the highest levels of the USA Gov't.  The worry is that if the Guatemalan Gov't topples, focus then may shift to the dark deeds of the current President back when he was a CIA operative, a Colonel & later a General in the Guatemalan Army & Intelligence Service, and led Death Squads which slaughtered Mayan people in Guatemala.  The pretense for the slaughter was that the Mayans were the Boogie-Men of Choice back then, communists.  This was all fully backed by the U.S. Gov't. & Reagan.

The Fed Gov't here has had Guatemala as a pet project ever since the early 1950's, when Edward Bernays was hired to develop & implement his unique style of propaganda falsely showing that the democratically elected President of Guatemala was a Communist.  The guy wasn't a Communist, but he was overthrown.  The old United Fruit Company then essentially ran Guatemala for years & years.  Now we have the corrupt President of Guatemala, the Oligarch Molina (the former Death Squad Colonel), being propped up by the Obama Administration.  Public and private Oligarchs always are concerned when it looks as though some Populist movement may be successful in installing a genuinely democratic government.  I say "genuinely" because simply having elections doesn't guarantee a democracy.

2.  Black Monday---
 Monday, August 24, 2015 the Wall Street Market opened and lost 1,000 points in short order.  It recovered about half of that by day's end, but Wall Streeters and the Fed Gov't were shaken to the core.  The President's Working Group on Markets (or some similar title, can't remember), the so-called "Plunge Protection Team", made valiant efforts to help...largely to no avail.  The Fed Reserve, part of the Team, did what it could but with little effect.  The Corporate Media presently are claiming that the situation is now essentially back to normal...but that the Market remains "volatile".

Volatile, indeed.  According to several reputable analysts (e.g., Paul Craig Roberts and James Rickards), the Stock Market has been enjoying an "Asset Bubble" that is propped up by the Fed Reserve...and the Ponzi Party is almost over.  What the Oligarchs are worried about is as follows:  1. the elephant in the room--- the Bubble of the $1.25 quadrillion worth of bizarre financial derivatives floating around out in the marketplace,  2. the gargantuan amounts of currency being pumped into the world monetary system, and 3. loss of confidence in the dollar.  The number one priority of any U.S. Administration is to preserve the perception that the dollar is strong.

3.  The Exposure of Gold Price Manipulation---
Revelations of this manipulation have become more numerous recently.  Not only are central banks, mega commercial banks, and mega Hedge Funds manipulating the price of gold (keeping it from rising), but now (according to James Rickards & others) the evidence strongly suggests that the highest levels of governments---including the USA---also are involved.  [This is not news to those intimately involved in the gold market.]  The demand for physical gold is through the roof, so much so that the available supply is almost completely dry.  That means the price should be through the roof as well, but (given today's inflated dollar), it's not.  Hmmm.  Oligarchs need to keep the price of gold relatively low because a high price indicates that the dollar is weak.  That's the very last perception the Oligarchy wants out in the world.

Along with the idea above, the Oligarchs are worried that their "Recovery" Propaganda is failing.  It's becoming more obvious every day that we still are in a recession...and that a depression may be close at hand.  Some analysts claim that the coming economic collapse will make the 1930's look like a picnic.  I don't believe that any prognosticator can say such a thing with any degree of certainty; nevertheless, even I can see that things are not looking good.  Despite what our Gov't reports, unemployment is relatively high, quality jobs are evaporating while inferior jobs proliferate, the prices of goods & services steadily are creeping up, Wall Street remains a giant casino, wages essentially continue their 30-year stagnation, the 700% rise in income (over 30 yrs) for the upper crust continues, "Free Trade" Agreements on steroids (which offshore manufacturing & jobs) are being pursued by Repubs & Dems, and many of the WORKING poor still qualify for public assistance programs.  The Corporate Media say that the "Recovery" still is "fragile".  It should be obvious that there is no Recovery.  We're still in a recession...and sliding rapidly into a depression.  Of course, that only applies to the Poor and Middle Classes.  The Oligarchs (the top 1%, or some say, the top one-tenth of 1%) are doing just fine.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well