Showing posts with label Bond Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bond Market. Show all posts

Sunday, August 12, 2018

"The Trump Slump" -Or- The Dollar, The Bust, & The Future


I didn't coin the phrase, "The Trump Slump"; that comes from a group of International Bankers.  It resulted from the fact that the U.S. Dollar fell consistently throughout all of 2017.  2018 is boding no better.

Below is a recent email I sent to family & friends.  The title of it was "The Dollar, The Bust, & The Future".
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And so far in 2018, price inflation has increased.

If the economy is "surging" (as stated by NBC), why is the median income here in the USA now only $32,110?  Compare that to the median income in 2000:  $31,514... a bare bones increase in 18 years.  I doubt it even covered the loss of purchasing power due to price inflation.  The economy is "surging" only for the upper 10-15% (or so) of income earners.

Just a reminder...be prepared...I'm guessing the Crash is no more than two years away.  Yes, it's only a guess, but the Stock Market is in a Bubble larger than the one just prior to the 2008 Crash; the same is true of today's Housing Bubble.  The Bond Market Bubble already has peaked & is slowly deflating.  Auto sales are down in 2018.  The PetroDollar is in its death throes.  In less than ten years, the Dollar no longer will be the world's reserve currency; the IMF is seeing to that with a program already underway.  Plus, Fed Gov't spending is increasing more under Trump & the Repub Congress than during the 1st two years of either Bush or Obama.  Our National Debt continues to increase at a phenomenal rate.  [See www.USDebtClock.org] Confidence in the Dollar is decreasing worldwide.

Corporate profits are at an all-time high, but where's the "Trickle-Down"?  Corporations are using those profits to buy back their own Stock, thus falsely inflating that Market.

The primary reason our GDP has increased is:  the Powers-That-Be still count income made by the Financial Sector as adding to the Gross Domestic Product.  In fact, though, the Financiers extract wealth from the economy.  Their income should be subtracted from the GDP.  This has been shown clearly by the economist, Professor Richard Werner.  [His interview clips/lecture clips are on YouTube.]

Finally, in the Boom-Bust Cycle since 1973, we are now overdue for the next Bust.  The only thing in question is:  how large will the next Bust be?

The good news is that it's highly likely that this next Crash finally will bring about meaningful reform in our corrupt, Crony Capitalist system...and very possibly an end to the privatizing of government.  We need to return to a Mixed Economy, like the one that produced the Golden Age of American Capitalism (1946-1972, or some say, '45 through the early '60s).
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Friday, February 23, 2018

Claiming We're in an Economic Recovery is Absurd


Nevertheless, that's what the Corporate Media, the Fed Reserve, DC politicians, and the rest of the Establishment are doing.  It goes back to the last part of the Obama Era, and now includes Trump & Crew.  Let's examine several of the reasons why such a claim is absolutely false...at least, false when it comes to the overwhelming majority of Americans.  Not all, but much of the info below is taken from the U.S. National Debt Clock... usdebtclock.org

[NOTE:  Number 1 below was edited on 2-24-18.  Number 3 was edited 3-14-18...the amount of our National Debt, now just a hair away from $21 trillion.]
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1.  The current median income for individual workers is $31,654 per year; in the year 2000, it was $31,229.  Wow, what a booming increase... not.  For those who may have forgotten parts of their old math & statistics courses, "median" gives a better sense of things than does "average".  With "average", the millionaires & billionaires skew the results.  When we use "median income", that means half the workers make less than $31K+change.  HALF.  There was a time when $31K/year was a decent income; that's long gone.

2.  The current number of unemployed is more than double the number claimed by the Feds/Trump.  [See the piece/post immediately prior to this one... and the Debt Clock.]

3.  The National Debt was $2.6 trillion in 1988, and the Debt to GDP ratio was 49%.  Currently, the National Debt is $20.96 trillion (edited 3-14-18), and the Debt to GDP ratio is about 105% (the last number is for 2017).  [In 1980, our National Debt was only $906 billion, not even one trillion.  The Reagan Era more than doubled that number.]  The point being:  these numbers are a major reason for the world losing confidence in the Dollar... with fiat currency having no intrinsic worth, the only reason people value it is because of confidence.  Trump & Crew are well on their way to increasing the National Debt by trillions more.  Don't believe the Propaganda that all will balance out because of increased jobs resulting in more income tax revenue.  Reagan said the same thing, but the Debt almost tripled.

4.  The IMF has launched a ten-year program/plan that will replace the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  The negative impact on our economy will be significant.

5.  The Establishment touts the claim that wages have risen 2.9%.  [I don't recall over what time span.]  Never mind about half of that is lost to the hidden tax known as price inflation.  With the current median income (see number 1 above), the increase comes to $76 per month... not too exciting.  With the minimum wage, the increase comes to 21 cents per hour... appreciated, I imagine, but not cause for celebration.

6.  Toward the end of March (next month),  several countries will start accepting Chinese Yuan in exchange for oil.  That will be the beginning of the end for the almighty PetroDollar.  Within a very short time, the Bretton Woods international monetary system will be no more.  The Dollar will suffer significantly; because of increased inflation, it will lose even more of its purchasing power than it already has lost.

7.  The overall worldwide Debt Bubble (public & private debt) is at a record high level.  All financial bubbles burst; in all of history, there hasn't been one that didn't.  The Debt Bubble dwarfs all the others; that's true even if only public debt is considered.

8.  The U.S. Bond Market is collapsing.  It's not the only one in the world doing so.  Bond markets collapse because of approaching insolvency... at least, that's one of the major reasons.

9.  Bizarre financial derivatives still are running at full speed.  They have only window dressing restraints from the Feds.

10.  When the Establishment reveals the monthly Jobs Report, it never gives important details:  how many of those jobs are minimum wage, and/or part-time, and/or temporary?  Currently, there are over 27 million part-time workers in the USA.  The Debt Clock doesn't indicate how many of those would prefer a full-time job... but I suspect that most would.

11.  Trump & Crew are making it easier for the Fed and Mega Banks to transfer wealth from the majority of Americans to those in the Upper Crust.

12.  In general, the permanent Tax Cut gift given to the Rich by Trump & Congress will not result in capital expansion of business enterprises.  The Rich and Super-Rich will put those tax break savings elsewhere.  I suspect every one of them knows that a Crash is coming... and that it's unavoidable.  Their primary concern is to protect their families & their wealth.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Monday, April 17, 2017

It's NOT About Korea, Syria, Terrorism, or Saving...


civilians from any of that.  It amazes me how some Americans, especially some supposedly "Conservative" Americans, ignore facts, the Constitution, & history and immediately wrap themselves in the flag whenever any group of conniving politicians starts beating the war drums.  Our history as a nation is replete with examples of that.  Here are the real reasons those drums are beating so loudly; this is why private and public Oligarchs now constantly are angling for another major war.  The following points are the main reasons why "Republicans" are so loud and "Democrats" are virtually silent (and thus complicit) on the whole war mess---

1.  The fiat Dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is being seriously threatened.  Countries not only are dumping Dollars, but also are joining together in agreements that bypass the Dollar completely.  That's especially true regarding Russia, China, and other countries in Asia...but also elsewhere.  [Many countries appear to be fed up with the financial & economic Bully-Boy tactics of the highest levels of our Gov't...and justifiably so.]  The PetroDollar is on its last legs everywhere; its collapse is fairly imminent.  The USA's military, which essentially is the Fed Reserve's enforcement/intimidation arm, often has been used to keep countries in line relative to the dominance of the Dollar.  [That's probably why Saddam was taken out.  He was on the verge of selling oil in non-Dollar currency.  Libya and Iran were threatening to do the same.]  Without that Dollar dominance, our fiat Dollar and debt-based economy would be toast...much more than both are already.

2.  The Global Debt Bubble, which is a gazillion times larger than the Stock Market Bubble, is on the verge of bursting.  Arguably, it could be said that it's already bursting.  I suspect that most Oligarchs (especially those in public office) think another major war will kick the can down the road.  Except for the "Defense" (which should be "War") Sector of the Stock Market, investors then would turn to the Bond Market (which should be the DEBT Market)...because they perceive it as less risky.

3.  I also believe that, above all else, Oligarchs have a great desire to keep our debt-based economy rolling along.  Why?  Because it transfers wealth from the Poor and Middle Classes to the Upper Crust better than anything since Feudalism.  Adjusting for inflation, in the last thirty years or so the incomes of the Super-Rich have gone up by 700%.  In the same period, the incomes of the rest of us have remained relatively flat.  Our economy primarily is based on two things:  Debt, and War (referred to as "Defense" by the Oligarchy).  Since the advent of rampant Financialization, "average" Americans have had to go into fairly massive debt in an attempt to simply stay even in terms of lifestyle.  Unfortunately, that debt isn't doing the job in most cases.  Close to 50% of us are living in poverty or near-poverty, and the Middle Class basically has been hollowed out.  Most Oligarchs don't appear to care, but they have very effective Propaganda techniques to make some people think they do care.  Plus, they have tried & tested diversion techniques (such as war, the Two-Party political system, phony "Populist" movements, etc.) to distract us from the greatest transfer of wealth in human history.  [As I've stated several times, none of this is a grand "conspiracy".  Oligarchs mostly do all this simply because they have mutual interests and objectives; it's merely "good business" practice to them.  Sometimes they work together, but most of the time it's done independent of one another.  Even if it were a "conspiracy", of what use would that knowledge be?]
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Side Notes:  here's a little history---

1.  Since the end of the Korean Conflict [that's the official, technical name...because then supposedly our participation in that war doesn't violate the Constitution] in the early 1950's, our Gov't has had nuclear weapons in S. Korea aimed at N. Korea.  Is it any surprise then that N. Korea has developed nukes?

2.  Not too many years ago, N. Korea offered to freeze its nuke program in exchange for concessions (such as the lifting of economic/financial sanctions) from our Fed Gov't.  Our Gov't refused even to have talks about that proposal.

3.  Even more recently, N. Korea offered to freeze its weapons-delivery program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.  Again, our Gov't refused to have talks about it.

4.  China has been trying for years to get our Gov't to just sit down and talk with N. Korea.  No luck.

5.  The 1950's Korean "War" never officially ended.  A "Cease-Fire" Agreement was made between military muckiwups on both sides, but the Gov'ts involved have not yet signed a Peace Treaty.  Technically, they're all still at war.  Any good or common sense appears to be lacking on both sides.

6.  Various reports indicate that most of N. Korea is experiencing famine to one degree or another.  The Gov't there is desperate for relief...one way or another.  I can't think of one good reason for not sitting down and having talks with them...rather than threatening an unconstitutional First-Strike with a nuclear option.
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More Notes---

It should be obvious by now that Hillary Trump is not:  "America First", or "draining the swamp" in DC, or going to favor the little guy over outfits like Goldman Sachs (now, even more so, it's Gov't Sachs), or going to make sure that "everyone has healthcare", etc., etc., etc...ad nauseam.  The man is Same-Old, Same- Old, except that he's a much more dangerous version.

Relative to the title of this piece, the bottom line is this---  the war drums are all about maintaining the American Empire, the world fiat Dollar, our debt-based economy, and the tools that make the Super-Rich richer.  They have almost nothing to do with saving average people or helping other countries.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Financial/Economic Crash Update



1.  The Bond Market already is crashing.
2.  That eventually will burst the Stock Market Bubble.
3.  The Dollar is temporarily "strong", but only in terms of being the best house in a really horrible neighborhood.
4.  We currently have the lowest number in years of people with a full-time permanent job.
5.  The current Real Estate Bubble is on the cusp of bursting.
6.  Mega Bank fraud continues...especially in terms of gold & silver price manipulation... because that makes the Dollar appear "strong".
7.  Many countries (especially emerging markets) continue to bypass the USA by forming their own Trade & Finance agreements.
8.  The second largest economy in the world, China, is in deep financial & economic trouble.  Their Crash would affect the entire world.
9.  Italy's financial system is on the verge of collapse.
10.  Though they should bite the bullet, the Fed Reserve most likely will not raise interest rates beyond one time in 2017.  That means more QE is coming, which means Bubbles.  All financial & economic bubbles burst; there hasn't been a single time in human history when that wasn't true.  The longer the Fed waits to bite the bullet, the bigger the Crash will be.
11.  Deutsche Bank is in deep trouble.  Their derivatives portfolio alone could crash them.
12.  Price inflation in the USA already is edging up.
13.  USA sovereign Debt as of tonight is just under $20 trillion... and increasing rapidly.
14.  US Debt held by foreign countries is a bit over $6 trillion, and decreasing rapidly.  Countries are dumping the Dollar.  Those Dollars are coming home; that will decrease the value of each dollar, and that will cause an increase in price inflation.
[See the online "US Debt Clock" for the two items immediately above.]
15.  Various analysts say to look for a continued expansion of the Wall Street Stock Market Bubble in early 2017, and then a massive correction later in the year.  [That massive correction could well become a complete Crash... especially given what's going on in the Bond Market.]
16.  The unmitigated Propaganda here in the USA continues:  "The Recovery is doing fine..."; "The Fed has it under control..."; "Our economy is improving..."; etc., ad nauseam.
17.  50% of American workers have a yearly income of only $30K or less.
18.  The top 1% in America has more wealth than the bottom 95% combined.
19.  The 400 wealthiest individuals here have more wealth than the bottom 150 million individuals combined.

Yes, everything is fine... for a few people.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well


Monday, June 27, 2016

Here's Why Many People Don't Seem to Get It


Below is an email I just now sent to family and friends.  It has been edited a tiny bit.
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Here's why many Americans seemingly don't grasp the dire economic straits that exist today...not only here, but worldwide.  This piece really nails it.  In the 1st half, the concept of "averages" and the "hollowing out" of the Middle Class; in the 2nd half (starting about 13:00), how the System is "liquidating" all the gains since WW II, why mathematicians would laugh some economists right out of the room, and the fact that the Bond Market is much more important than the Stock Market.

The obvious is stated clearly, & the style, facts, and pace produce many huge laughs...the situation is both comical & tragic.  For those who don't know, Max Keiser was a stock broker for many years before becoming a pundit.  He's a strong Capitalist, but abhors Crony Capitalism and Neoliberalism.  [The latter two are plundering the world, & it's right in plain sight.  Most high-level politicians in America & much of the developed world are Crony Capitalists & Neoliberals.  Their overall records leave no doubt of that.] 
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"Don't Believe Him"

The Nazis in the 1930's and 1940's used exactly the same propaganda tactic as is used by Trump:  repeat a lie over & over, and m...