The Mother of All Feedback Loops re Human Society

A short while ago, I posted the following as a small part of a new book description---

"the complex feedback loop involving constant economic growth, which requires more energy, which then creates more complexity in society, which then requires more energy, which then creates even more complexity, etc. is ruining our habitat;".

This essay is an expanded view of that concept.

In our past (and ongoing) pursuit of infinite economic growth, we've created a System, a "Superorganism" according to the ecologist, Nate Hagens.  This System is so large, so filled with complexity, and so out-of-control that a) it can't be fully described, and b) it can't be reined-in, and c) it's ruining the ecosphere.  It's the ultimate Rat-Race.  It's a primary cause of our ecological overshoot.  It's a runaway machine with no one at the helm.  It's literally killing us, not only with pollutants, but also with food insecurity, the stress of job insecurity, inadequate health care facilities, wars, inequality and inequity, declining democracy, and the like.  About twenty percent (maybe less) of Earth's human population are managing to stay afloat in the ongoing energy binge; the rest of us are in a slow descent to subsistence living.

[The twenty-six richest people on Earth own as much wealth as HALF the entire world's population combined.  In a civil society, that's an obscenity.  It's most likely also why the Rich and Powerful (perhaps with a few exceptions) want the runaway System to continue.  They appear to not be long-term, comprehensive, holistic thinkers.]

The ever-increasing complexity is causing significant problems in the arenas of:  global supply chains, manufacturing, transportation, consumption, extraction of natural resources, generation and distribution of electricity, health care equity, income inequality, institutional functioning, and more.  As society becomes more complex, the need for more and more energy increases.

Even a High School biology student could tell you with a high degree of certainty that such a scenario is unsustainable on a planet with finite resources.  Unfortunately, it appears most (not all) of the Powers-That-Be are relying on ideology, not science, to navigate through this current Crisis.  They appear to believe the benefits of our 150-year energy binge are the norm, but fail to see the Mother of All Feedback Loops, and the negative externalities of fossil fuel use.  They also don't seem to grasp the looming minerals problem relative to our necessary transition to Green Energy.  Never mind the soil crisis and the impending food supply shortage.

According to the mining engineer and geologist, Simon Michaux, in about only five years there will be serious problems regarding necessary minerals for Green energy.  In about ten years, agriculture also will be having significant problems.  It all revolves around energy.

If we don't voluntarily reduce our energy use, we'll be forced to by lack of cheap, easily available, and abundant fossil fuels AND lack of cheap, easily available and necessary minerals (about 70 of them) for renewables.  Less energy use will lessen eco-overshoot by leaps and bounds.  It also will slow down the Rat-Race by lessening societal complexity.  This all can happen if we phase out of infinite economic GROWTH, and phase into economic development in a steady state economy.  [See https://steadystate.org/ ]

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well, and Be Aware

Here are the cruxes of our current situation

If the many expert PhD ecologists (whose work I've been following for five-plus years) are correct about what's coming fairly soon, then aggregate humanity is in for some extremely troubling times.

People have to be aware of a problem before they undertake mitigation of it.  I sincerely doubt that (as only a few examples) most American adults are aware of the following:

1.  large scale investment in renewable energy is declining when it should be increasing; and,

2.  fossil fuels are necessary (for now & the immediate future, at least) to build renewable energy gizmos and infrastructure; and,

3.  going Green and still pursuing infinite economic growth is an oxymoron; and,

4.  because of the amounts of refined metals (copper, boron, iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, zinc, silver, molybdenum, and about 50-60 others) and rare earth elements necessary for production of renewable energy, and the time required to mine & refine those minerals, it's extremely likely there's no way we can avoid major catastrophes (worse than those recently) within the next 10 or so years...even if we NOW would go full steam ahead with production of renewables...& we're not even doing that.

[Note:  over 90 of the 118 chemical elements on the Periodic Table are metals.  High Tech gizmos require 30-70 of them in each manufactured unit.]

POINT BEING:  I'm convinced that an overwhelming majority of Americans - including a majority of those on the political Left - are not aware of (or don't believe) most of the content in 1-4 above.  Thus, they don't believe MAJOR catastrophes (worse than those of today) are coming relatively soon, no matter what we do or don't do.  More importantly, I'm convinced a majority believe we can go back to "normal" (excessive consumerism, overconsumption, living high on the hog) if we just Go Green.  They seem to believe: things will be fine if we just use renewable energy and recycle & re-use materials; industrial farming can continue to expand; commercial & industrial land development can continue to expand; fresh water availability is not a problem; soil degradation is not a problem; etc.  I'm also convinced a majority of people believe we have until 2040 or 2050 to "solve the problem", and so, no worries - the Powers-That-Be are handling it.  Sorry, none of that is true.

But all the above doesn't mean there's no hope.  Science apparently can't do it, but those coming catastrophes finally will wake up people to the fact that we as aggregate humans must undergo a paradigm shift in lifestyle, ethics, & worldview.  Only then will people, in earnest, adopt the choices found in Chapter 11 of my 1st book (or wherever else they find them)...and hundreds more found all over the internet - methods to heal the ecosphere, live sustainably as a species, and pass on a healthy habitat to future generations.  That can happen, but first we'll be going through incredibly troubling times.  There's no way to avoid them.  Prepare your mind.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

 

This is more or less further confirmation of the hypothesis which states:

 the public and private Powers-That-Be have no intention whatsoever of transitioning fully from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg&list=WL&index=83&t=2182s  [Mining alone will make it unworkable in the needed time frame.]

Title:  "The energy transition delusion:  inescapable mineral realities"

Mark Mills is with the Manhattan Institute and on the faculty at Northwestern U.

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/mark-p-mills

He's a physicist, author, & entrepreneur.

The alternative (not in the video clip above) is to transition away from the paradigm of perpetual, ever-expanding, infinite economic growth on a finite Earth.  https://steadystate.org/  and

https://steadystate.org/discover/definition-of-steady-state-economy/

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Not only my opinion.  Take Care

Major Flaws in Analyses by Mainstream Talking Heads Regarding Our Ongoing Socio-Eco-Econ Crisis

IIn addition to Alternative News sources (such as Democracy Now!), every day I watch or read at least a couple of Mainstream (corporate) News sources, such as NBC Nightly News or a news magazine article like this one---

https://time.com/6221771/stagflation-crisis-debt-nouriel-roubini/

Using the article above as an example, the following conclusions have become obvious.

It's a brilliant analysis (in terms of reductionism instead of holism) BUT there are two major flaws in it.  Because the author likely is a neoliberal economist (as opposed to an ecological economist such as Herman E. Daly, William E. Rees, Joshua Farley, et al.) he apparently can't see them.

1.  His analysis is strictly within the neoliberal framework of shooting for infinite economic growth (as well as overconsumption) on a finite  planet.  Such is eventually not possible because of the second law of thermodynamics (& other reasons), having to do with energy & entropy.  Without infinite growth - which requires ever more energy each year - mainstream (neoliberal) economics eventually will fail completely, regardless of anything the Fed does & regardless of any changes in monetary & fiscal policy.  The need for more & more energy will kill it.  According to Prof. Nate Hagens, in only the last 30 years we humans have used more energy than in the previous 5,000 years.  If we continue on that path, & with only 2% or so econ growth per year, in 50 years the energy required just to extract and/or capture the amount we'll need will make the whole scenario cost-prohibitive.  

Unknown, future new tech won't be able to help much because getting it always involves using more & more energy.  The solution to all this is adopting some version of a steady-state economy and dumping infinite-growth economics.  Much work is being done toward that end.   https://steadystate.org/ is only one of several non-profits which are dealing with it.  Have a look when you can.

2.  While he gives a slight nod to the Eco-Crisis, he doesn't seem to fully grasp the massive problems with not only climate change, but just as importantly, with soil degradation & erosion, desertification, fresh water availability, deforestation, worldwide toxic pollution, biodiversity loss, nuke contamination, over-harvesting and over-extracting of dwindling natural resources, overpopulation, ocean warming & acidification, the methane "bomb", and more in the eco-realm.  All of those together can collapse a society much more so than stagflation and supply shocks.  Without a sea change in our worldview, our ethics, and our metaphysics, they will...unless we overcome the neoliberal propaganda which has been rampant for the last 40 years.  

People say, "Well, it's deeply complex...it's all relative...it's complicated", etc.  All true, but none of that means we aren't facing multiple threats to our existence, or that Gov't is handling those existential threats well rather than kicking the can down the road, or that Tech will save us and preserve our pursuit of infinite growth.  

Bottom line:  it isn't just about politics, or economics, or climate change.  If we are to survive & thrive, almost everything must change.  People are anxious to "get back to normal".  The trouble with that is:  "normal" was/is the cause of the multifaceted mess we're in now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xr9rIQxwj4&list=WL&index=60

As a species, collectively we appear to be "energy blind" (from the clip immediately above) and wedded to the idea that the temporary "carbon pulse" will continue on for decades & decades more.

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Not only my opinion.  Take Care