"LAST WARNING to Family and Friends"

Below is a recent email I sent (slightly edited).

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RE:  the Financial/Economic Crash---

1.  In the past few days, I've watched the analyses of about a dozen or so well-known financial and/or economic forecasters who have stellar past records (multiple times) re predictions on these topics, people such as Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Charley Munger, Ray Dalio, et al.  The clips were no more than a week old.  Long story short (no time for details):  the probability is extremely high that the Crash will begin this year, and it will be a hard landing.  They all agree, with only minor variations.  All that, plus what I've seen for the past few years, reinforces my belief in a 90%-95% probability of the start of a Crash shortly.  [Or arguably, it already has begun.]  It will be global in effect.

NOTE:  I predicted the same thing for 2016, but my confidence in that forecast was only about 75%.

2.  Also viewed about a dozen precious metals analysts (Jim Rickards, Mike Maloney, et al.) who basically agree with number 1 above, & because of that, most say the probability is extremely high for gold to go to about $2200 and silver to about $35 by the end of the year or perhaps Jan. -Feb.  Then, in the following 1 - 3 years, gold at $4K - $5K and silver at $100 - $300.  [Silver has multiple industrial uses, especially in the High Tech sector, & especially in solar energy...never mind the "store-of-value" monetary attraction.  Demand is increasing.]

I don't follow it, but Bitcoin probably will be at a gazillion $. :)

So, plan accordingly...or not.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The OVERDUE Recession is Starting NOW

Preface
Below is the latest email (slightly edited here) I sent to family & friends.  The Recession hasn't officially started, because the Powers-That-Be in Gov't need at least two calendar quarters (I think) of data before declaring it.  Anyone who doesn't have his/her head buried in the sand, though, probably would agree:  this is the beginning.  Act accordingly, as follows.
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Be safe, & keep stocked up.  This is the start of a Recession...possibly even worse, a Depression.  Irrational exuberance re the economy already is evaporating.  Distribution of goods already is being affected.  "Runs" on grocery stores already (just barely) have started.

If anyone never has believed me in the past about the overdue Recession, believe this now:  it has started.  

The covid-19 Black Swan, predicted by Daniel Zhang, is at the beginning of crushing the economy.

We'll all survive that, but those of us with a cache of extra household goods (not just food) will be much more comfortable than others.  Distribution of goods eventually will slow way down...temporarily...maybe only for a couple of weeks, maybe for a bit longer.  It hasn't kicked into high gear yet, but it will...no one knows exactly when.  Stock up... food, OTC meds, paper goods, anything you use daily or weekly.

Thanks to the slow response (& lack of previous preparedness) by most governments--- especially in the USA ---covid-19 sooner or later will infect multiple millions, and will devastate the world economy.  If we all don't pull together on this situation, many fewer millions will die (directly or indirectly).  That's not hyperbole.

p.s.  Worldwide:  140,000+ cases; 5,300+ deaths; 123 countries (including "territories").

USA:  1,650 known cases; 41 deaths; 47 known States.
Compare these numbers to those in the March 10 post/essay immediately previous to this one.

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Not only my opinion.  "Be Prepared"  (A long, long time ago, I was a Boy Scout.  For those who don't know, that's their motto:)

Our Bubble Economy is About to Meet the COVID-19 Black Swan

Preface
I'm not a virologist or toxicologist; however, I do have a Biology and Environmental Science background, both academically and in the field.
Key terms in the title above---
COVID-19:  corona virus disease, 2019;
Black Swan:  "A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight."  ~ Investopedia
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Following are a few facts regarding covid-19, and some speculation on my part.

Facts---
1.  The virus is:  highly contagious, spreading rapidly, and too often deadly (especially in children and old people).
2.  The CDC has stated that there still are a lot of unknowns regarding exactly how this virus behaves.
3.  Except for Antarctica, the virus is now on every continent in the world.
4.  It's now in 50 countries.
5.  Confirmed cases in humans now number 82,550; confirmed deaths from the virus now number 2,810.
6.  Larry Kudlow of the Trump Administration stated that the corona virus epidemic was "fake news", and that the U.S. has the virus "tightly contained".  Trump has stated that China has the virus under control, and the risk to U.S. citizens is "very low". 
7.  The CEO of Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, recently stated that the corona virus (covid-19) is a Black Swan event for the world economy.
8.  The U.S. Stock Market is now down 13%.

Speculation---
1.  The Establishment (including Trump and the CDC) is scared to death to use the word "pandemic"...because of the effect it would have on the economy.
2.  A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease; therefore, covid-19 is a pandemic.  The Establishment would argue the numbers are not yet high enough to warrant that designation.  Okay, that's arguable, so at the very least, it's a pandemic in-the-making.  And the rapidity with which it spreads guarantees the making soon will be completed.
3.  Kudlow, Trump, et. al. are either flat-out lying or demonstrating a degree of ignorance beyond the pale.
4.  The private and public Powers-That-Be will do anything to keep the Bubble Economy rolling along on irrational exuberance.  They rarely will give us the truth regarding covid-19.
5.  This tiny virus very well could bring on our overdue economic & financial Crash.

Not only my opinion.  Be Prepared

BIG News on the Economy

On Wednesday night, 8-14-19, in their News broadcasts, the Corporate Media finally admitted that a Recession "may be" in the near future.  Isn't it amazing how we (according to them) went from "our booming economy" to a Bust "may be" right around the corner.  Ha!

Of course, the Corporate Media have known that for at least a couple of years.  Their News isn't "fake", but it's often incomplete.  The metrics for the next Crash have been in place for, at a minimum, the last three years.  News of a "booming economy" meant a "boom" only for a relatively small percentage of income earners.  The underlying, base economy has been pretty much a disaster.  Half the workers in this country are either in poverty, or bordering on it.  HALF.
We're talking about workers, not people on assistance/welfare.

The greatest transfer of wealth (to the Upper Crust) in the history of humanity is still in full swing.  The so-called "recovery" doesn't apply to the majority of Americans.  I've gone through the stats in many previous posts, and don't have the time or energy to repeat that now.  The reasons for this dire situation also have been detailed in previous posts.

Here's all you need to know for the near-term future:  there's no "may be" or maybe (see the first paragraph above) about the coming Crash.  It's about 99.9% guaranteed.  We're overdue for it.  Again, if you don't believe that, simply look at the time intervals between Booms & Busts from the 1973 Recession to present day.  It won't be only here in the USA; it will be worldwide.  It won't be a minor downturn.  It will be a major Crash.  All you can do is plan and act accordingly.

What does "plan and act accordingly" mean?  Here are my main suggestions.
1.  Pay down as much of your debt as possible.  When the Crash hits, your income & purchasing power may go down, but debt payments likely won't.
2.  Stock up on extra, everyday household goods...not only food, but paper goods, OTC meds, toiletries, anything you use regularly.  Credit will dry up for a time (maybe a week, or two, or ?), and businesses run on credit, not cash.  That means delivery of goods to stores will slow way down or stop...temporarily.
3.  Keep some ready cash handy.  How much depends on your comfort zone.  Banks very well may limit withdrawals for a time.
4.  Hang on to (or obtain with cash) hard assets.  Their value will increase when inflation hits.
5.  Don't take on more major debt, unless it's for an asset that you can sell relatively quickly.  When announcing their "news" about the Recession, the Media suggested that you perhaps (because of current lower interest rates) should now buy a house or a car.  That's wise advice only if you can pay cash and have no extra debt.  Corporate interests want you to take on more debt...don't.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Two Differences Between the Last Crash and the Coming Crash

1.  Because of only window-dressing laws/regs (supposedly to prevent another Crash) instituted during the Obama Era, and deregulation during two years of Trump & Crew,

2.  the metrics for the coming Crash now are worse than were those for the last Crash; thus, the next Bust most likely also will be worse.

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https://youtu.be/9F_sxkSHmCo ...

a very poignant & informative video.

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For those who believe there is no imminent Crash coming, all you have to do is look at the time intervals between the Booms & Busts from the 1973-75 severe Recession up to Present Day, and you'll see that we're overdue for the next Bust.  No one has suspended the Boom-Bust Cycle.  If anything, Busts have become more numerous since the establishment of the Fed Reserve in 1913...and the "Nixon Shock" (abandonment of the Gold Standard) in 1971.  

The DC politicians plus the Corporate Media either are lying or they're significantly ignorant when they tell us everything is rosy.  [Very few in the Corp Media have sounded any warning bells at all.]  The Asset Bubbles now are worse than they were just before the 1929 Crash...& those numbers are proportionate, i.e., inflation is taken into account.  Prediction:  the Big Bust will be no later than the end of 2020.  It possibly could be later, but I really doubt it.

Plan accordingly.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"The Trump Slump" -Or- The Dollar, The Bust, & The Future

I didn't coin the phrase, "The Trump Slump"; that comes from a group of International Bankers.  It resulted from the fact that the U.S. Dollar fell consistently throughout all of 2017.  2018 is boding no better.

Below is a recent email I sent to family & friends.  The title of it was "The Dollar, The Bust, & The Future".
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https://qz.com/1164158/the-us-dollar-just-had-its-worst-year-in-more-than-a-decade-and-2018-will-bring-more-of-the-same/

https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/us-dollar-consistently-falling-throughout-2017/

And so far in 2018, price inflation has increased.

If the economy is "surging" (as stated by NBC), why is the median income here in the USA now only $32,110?  Compare that to the median income in 2000:  $31,514... a bare bones increase in 18 years.  I doubt it even covered the loss of purchasing power due to price inflation.  The economy is "surging" only for the upper 10-15% (or so) of income earners.

Just a reminder...be prepared...I'm guessing the Crash is no more than two years away.  Yes, it's only a guess, but the Stock Market is in a Bubble larger than the one just prior to the 2008 Crash; the same is true of today's Housing Bubble.  The Bond Market Bubble already has peaked & is slowly deflating.  Auto sales are down in 2018.  The PetroDollar is in its death throes.  In less than ten years, the Dollar no longer will be the world's reserve currency; the IMF is seeing to that with a program already underway.  Plus, Fed Gov't spending is increasing more under Trump & the Repub Congress than during the 1st two years of either Bush or Obama.  Our National Debt continues to increase at a phenomenal rate.  [See www.USDebtClock.org] Confidence in the Dollar is decreasing worldwide.

Corporate profits are at an all-time high, but where's the "Trickle-Down"?  Corporations are using those profits to buy back their own Stock, thus falsely inflating that Market.

The primary reason our GDP has increased is:  the Powers-That-Be still count income made by the Financial Sector as adding to the Gross Domestic Product.  In fact, though, the Financiers extract wealth from the economy.  Their income should be subtracted from the GDP.  This has been shown clearly by the economist, Professor Richard Werner.  [His interview clips/lecture clips are on YouTube.]

Finally, in the Boom-Bust Cycle since 1973, we are now overdue for the next Bust.  The only thing in question is:  how large will the next Bust be?

The good news is that it's highly likely that this next Crash finally will bring about meaningful reform in our corrupt, Crony Capitalist system...and very possibly an end to the privatizing of government.  We need to return to a Mixed Economy, like the one that produced the Golden Age of American Capitalism (1946-1972, or some say, '45 through the early '60s).

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Largest Amount of Borrowed Money in Any Quarter in USA History

In the 1st Quarter of this year, the Fed borrowed $488 billion...the largest amount for any Quarter in our history.  The Treasury Secretary claims that the Bond Market is "robust", and can handle the borrowing.  In fact, that Market has peaked and is trending down.  It's starting to collapse.  Our Debt is a Bubble sitting on a pin. 

That amount of borrowing plus the Repub Tax Cuts plus other factors = a big rise in price inflation, probably within a year or so.  Mnuchin (Treas. Sec.) says it's good to have a little inflation..."We want wages to increase."  Better hope inflation doesn't exceed the increase in wages; and sorry, but most likely it will.  It's almost there already...only .5% away from the last wage increase numbers.

So much for fiscal responsibility.  Those in the Congress and the White House who claim to be "Conservatives"...aren't.  NeoConservatives are a horse of an entirely different color.

Try as they may, the Establishment (including Trump & Crew) cannot avoid the metrics of the overdue Economic/Financial Crash on the horizon.  According to a study by Deutsche Bank, countries that don't properly manage their Debt experience a huge increase in Financial shocks, shocks that can severely damage the economy.  That has been our path every 7-12 years since the 1973-1975 Recession.  You can thank the Fed, the Mega Bank Casino Capitalists, and most of our DC politicians.  It should be obvious that the bombastic Trump & Crew are not significantly changing anything for the better.  They aren't draining the swamp; they're draining the country of a decent future.  Take a look at USDebtClock.org ...not just the upper left corner, but the entire table/chart.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

p.s.  Another reminder:  I'm not a Democrat or a Republican.

The Economic and Financial Crash is Just Around the Corner

Best guess--- The Crash probably will be anytime before the end of next year.  No one can predict exactly when.

Today I saw an ad for blue jeans; the price of the britches---$60.

In 1961, similar jeans were $3.95...I know because I remember buying a pair for that price in Ft. Collins, Colorado while I was a student at Colorado State U.  [You remember the damnedest things when you get old:]  So, about four dollars versus sixty dollars; to me, that's hyperinflation...it's already here.  It may be a bit anomalous for hyperinflation because of the long span of time involved, but nevertheless, it seems to me it IS the beast.

Decades of monetary policy from the Fed Reserve have reduced the value of the Dollar from 100 cents in 1913 to about 3 or 4 cents today.  They've purposely debased/devalued the Dollar in order to be able to afford the interest payment on our massive National Debt (ever since that Debt doubled or tripled---can't remember which---during the Reagan years).  They can pay it with ever cheaper dollars.  That's why the Fed is always shooting for 2% inflation... per year. 

Imagine what an ounce of gold would be worth if all the beaches of the world consisted of grains of gold instead of grains of sand.  Whenever the amount of some item is increased in the Market, the price/value of each unit of that item goes down.  Through institutionalized deficit spending, the Fed being the main purchaser of T-Bills (monetizing the Debt), and the horrendous QE for the last 8-9 years, the Fed has made the Dollar almost worthless...by creating huge amounts of it out of thin air.  That's why some jeans are $60 now.  That's why the Fed Budget is in the trillions instead of millions or the low billions.  The Dollar is worth less...a lot less.  One even might say that it's almost worthless.  Of course, the Propaganda from the Powers-That-Be says the Dollar is strong.  What that really means is:  it's the best of the worst.  It's the cleanest dirty shirt...and even that characterization is questionable.

The Gov't always can get more "money".  All it has to do is type digits in a computer.  That's what it does when the Fed Reserve buys Bonds/T-Bills.  Actual currency isn't printed up and handed to the Treasury by the Fed; the Fed simply types the amount onto its Balance Sheet.  It never will "run out".  The problem is that the world is fast losing faith in the value of the Dollar.  We all should be, too.  Countries are dumping the Dollar and bypassing the Dollar right & left.  Those Dollars then come home, which means more inflation, but this time it will be much faster than that from 1961 to the present.  International players such as the IMF and Bank of International Settlements already are looking into replacing the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  Can you blame them?  I think not.

No politician can stop this...it's too late.  We'll survive, but the cost of that survival & recovery will be high.

Don't believe the Elites' current Propaganda.  They're telling bald-faced lies because they're afraid the truth would result in massive panic...including a monumental exodus of capital from the USA.  [To those who think the public & private Powers-That-Be never would lie about such things---please, are you kidding me?  History says otherwise.]

Be Prepared (see previous posts), and Hang in There
p.s.  Your degree of comfort during the real recovery will depend upon your degree of preparation.  And, no, you don't need a bunker & hand grenades; there won't be a massive Mad Max scenario.  The Powers-That-Be would institute Martial Law on a monumental scale before allowing that to happen.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Observations on the Insanity of the Elites and on the Progression of Corporatism

Let's first define one term.  By "Elites", I'm referring to those who are either super-rich, or in positions of super-power and/or influence, or both.  These people are in public or private positions, or both.  It's a general definition; there are always a few exceptions to any general rule.  The exceptions, however, do not invalidate the general statement.
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1.  We've had the National Security & Surveillance State since at least 9-11-01.  Yes, security is important; however, excesses in that field by the Elites have created a monstrous problem.  It is this:  the Fourth Amendment essentially has been eliminated.  Other constitutional guarantees of protection against an errant gov't have been seriously compromised as well.  The Elites have done all this by various means, but often it's by passing laws in the dead of night before any of our "Representatives" have had a chance to even read a particular law.  Those who originate these laws (e.g., The PATRIOT Act, FISA, the National Defense Authorization Act, etc.) seem to have the insane idea that even though the laws are in conflict with the Constitution, somehow they trump that document, which of course, is the Supreme Law of the Land.  We the People appear to be putting up with this nonsense.

Perhaps it's past time to recognize that the "Security" State is more concerned with security for the State as opposed to for us.  We are fast going toward a Hard Fascist State, and leaving behind the Soft Fascism which we've had for at least a decade or more.  Many people don't believe that because, I think, they associate Fascism mainly with the anomalous weirdness of the German Nazis & their obsession with the elimination of Jews.  Let's not forget Franco's Spain and Mussolini's Italy; they were more truly Fascist.  Fascism means the marriage of the power of the State to the power of Big Business.   It's a totalitarian rule by public & private Elites.  That's what we're rushing toward in the USA.

2.  Not since the Cold War with the old Soviet Union have we been so close to a nuclear war disaster in the world.  The current crop of politicians in DC seem to hold the insane view that:  (a) "tactical" nukes can be used without any significant, serious, long-term, detrimental consequences to humans and our planet; these business folks probably haven't had a science class since high school, & they are clueless on this subject; and (b) a "first-strike" war is permissible under the Constitution and International Law... not true.

Critics of this critique probably will say something to the effect of:  Iran, Russia, and especially North Korea are a distinct danger to us, and threaten us repeatedly.  Some of that is true, but not to any serious degree.  What those countries are doing, for the most part, is pushing back against our threats to them.  We have economic and financial sanctions against them (especially N. Korea & Russia).  Sanctions are an act of war.  The Bully-Boy US Gov't seems to believe it can act against any other gov't in the world (including allies) and there will be no blowback.  That's an insane belief.

As reported by the dissident, Noam Chomsky (on Democracy Now), not long ago N. Korea offered to sit down and talk about their stopping weapons-delivery testing in exchange for our Gov't lifting sanctions against their country.  Our DC politicians refused to even consider it.  Naturally, to my knowledge that whole business never was revealed by the Corporate Media.  I'm not defending N. Korea; I'm against any totalitarian regime.  The point is, our Gov't appears to be escalating the situation, rather than diffusing it.  Worse, with Buffoon Trump, the politicians now are talking about a first-strike...with a possible nuclear option.  That's unmitigated insanity.

3.  Our top-level politicians, including both Democrats and Republicans (and those in the Corporatist Cabinet), seem to have lost all common sense.  Here are just a few examples of that.

(a)  The Democrats keep harping on the concept of Russia "interfering with" or "influencing" the last election here.  They can't or won't face the fact that the real reason they lost the last election (& not only at the national level) is because We the People no longer buy into their Corporatist and/or Neoliberal crap.  Almost without exception, top-level Dems are shills for the Wall Street Casino Capitalists.  They truly do represent the Status Quo...which most Americans have no patience for anymore.  Dems whining about the Russians displays hypocrisy to the Nth degree.  Our Fed Gov't has a history of interfering with elections, influencing electoral outcomes, and even overthrowing democratically elected gov'ts.  During the Clinton Era, our Gov't made sure that Boris Yeltsin got elected in Russia.  Top-level Dems are insane to keep on with this Russian interference narrative.

(b)  Trump and the Corporatist/Neoliberal Repubs are in the process of making it easier for the Financial Sector, especially the monopolistic Mega Banks, to screw over the bottom 99% of Americans.  They are doing so by removing the paltry restraints on the Crony Capitalist, Mega Banks.  They are guaranteeing the next Bust in the Boom-Bust American Business Cycle.  We're right on the cusp of being overdue for that Bust, and they are hurrying it along.  They do this because, for the most part, the Super-Rich benefit greatly from such a Bust.  How?  It's simple:  during a major recession or depression, the Elites can buy up assets cheaply.  We've seen it over & over in our history.  For example, not long after the 2008 Crash, Mega Banks bought up smaller and/or troubled banks at pennies on the dollar.  The "Too-Big-to-Fail" Mega Banks grew by 37%.  During the Great Depression of the 1930's, super-large landowners and banks bought up small farms and a myriad of other assets at bargain prices.  Assisting that type of scenario, as the current Repub Corporatists are doing, is insanity.  It will further ruin our country and cause great suffering among the majority of us.

(c)  Similar to the point above, both Repubs AND Dems refuse to bring back the Glass-Steagall Act.  In my view, their refusal is because they are Wall Street shills.  If Mega Banks want to play at Casino Capitalism using bizarre financial derivatives, then they should do so with their own money, not ours.  That's just common sense.  Anything else is insanity.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

A Blistering Critique of Democrats, Republicans, Trump, and the Deep State

Chris Hedges is recognized as a genuine "Progressive" and well respected as a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist.

This clip (below), only about 12 minutes long, is on a site deemed by the Democrats & Republicans to be a source  of "fake news"...and also deemed by them to be a place where "supporters of Russian Propaganda" pontificate.  It's RT, formerly "Russia Today".  There are a few (very few) sites that really do put out fake news.  The stories are complete fabrications.  From what I've seen over the past two years, RT is NOT one of those sites.  They do, however, have a certain "slant" to many of their presentations.  That's easy to recognize and filter out...just as it is with any other news site. 

Analysts on both the American "Right" and "Left" often appear there as guests.  As one of many alternatives to Mainstream American Media, I've found it to be a very good source of analysis.  All news sites are "slanted" to one degree or another, & this one is no more so than Fox, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, Democracy Now, PBS News Hour, The Washington Post, New York Times, etc., etc.

Democrats and Republicans have failed...utterly.  The result is King Donald the First.  He won the election because people were justifiably angry, desperate, & wanting change.  [As a friend pointed out, there also was manipulation of the voter rolls by the Repubs with a program called "Crosscheck"; however, that does not explain why a lot of people voted for Trump.]  Unfortunately, Trump is a Corporatist and a Con Man.  He will violate the Constitution even more than Bill Clinton, Dubya Bush, & Obama.  The Police State here will grow, more money will be sucked away from the Lower & Middle Classes, and once again, the Deep State/Shadow Gov't will prevail.  The Super-Rich will get richer, and the economy will crash...more than it has already.  The 7-10-year Boom-Bust Cycle, which benefits the Upper Crust & has been ongoing for about 45 years, will continue.  

The good news is that it's likely we'll survive...and finally wake up & see through the Edward Bernays style Propaganda coming from the so-called "Right", the so-called "Left", and other Corporatists such as Trump.

This clip is a must-see; it's a brilliant critique---

https://youtu.be/iaoea9fcHDM

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Financial/Economic Crash Update

1.  The Bond Market already is crashing.

2.  That eventually will burst the Stock Market Bubble.

3.  The Dollar is temporarily "strong", but only in terms of being the best house in a really horrible neighborhood.

4.  We currently have the lowest number in years of people with a full-time permanent job.

5.  The current Real Estate Bubble is on the cusp of bursting.

6.  Mega Bank fraud continues...especially in terms of gold & silver price manipulation... because that makes the Dollar appear "strong".

7.  Many countries (especially emerging markets) continue to bypass the USA by forming their own Trade & Finance agreements.

8.  The second largest economy in the world, China, is in deep financial & economic trouble.  Their Crash would affect the entire world.

9.  Italy's financial system is on the verge of collapse.

10.  Though they should bite the bullet, the Fed Reserve most likely will not raise interest rates beyond one time in 2017.  That means more QE is coming, which means Bubbles.  All financial & economic bubbles burst; there hasn't been a single time in human history when that wasn't true.  The longer the Fed waits to bite the bullet, the bigger the Crash will be.

11.  Deutsche Bank is in deep trouble.  Their derivatives portfolio alone could crash them.

12.  Price inflation in the USA already is edging up.

13.  USA sovereign Debt as of tonight is just under $20 trillion... and increasing rapidly.

14.  US Debt held by foreign countries is a bit over $6 trillion, and decreasing rapidly.  Countries are dumping the Dollar.  Those Dollars are coming home; that will decrease the value of each dollar, and that will cause an increase in price inflation.

[See the online "US Debt Clock" for the two items immediately above.]

15.  Various analysts say to look for a continued expansion of the Wall Street Stock Market Bubble in early 2017, and then a massive correction later in the year.  [That massive correction could well become a complete Crash... especially given what's going on in the Bond Market.]

16.  The unmitigated Propaganda here in the USA continues:  "The Recovery is doing fine..."; "The Fed has it under control..."; "Our economy is improving..."; etc., ad nauseam.

17.  50% of American workers have a yearly income of only $30K or less.

18.  The top 1% in America has more wealth than the bottom 95% combined.

19.  The 400 wealthiest individuals here have more wealth than the bottom 150 million individuals combined.

Yes, everything is fine... for a few people.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Update: The Demise of the Dollar

The following is by Jim Rickards, an international economist, attorney, consultant to gov'ts, NYT Best-Selling author, and expert on the gold market.  It's not the whole piece, and it didn't copy onto this venue properly, but it's readable.  The print size is tiny because that's the only way I could get it onto this page.  [I'm a No-Tech person.]  This is the portion that I felt was most important.
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September 9, 2016

Jim Rickards

Dear Reader,

I’ve been writing about the rise of world money, called the “special drawing 

right”(SDR), for years. 

I’ve especially been giving it a lot of attention recently because of the recent 

G-20 summit that took place in Hangzhou, China, earlier this week. And the IMF 

officially accepts the Chinese yuan into its basket of currencies making up its 

SDR later this month on Sept. 30.

The SDR is part of the global elite plan to displace the dollar as the global 

reserve currency and replace it with a new form of fiat money. This new form of 

money is controlled by the IMF and unaccountable to any elected democratic agency. 

The purpose of SDRs is to create global inflation after years of failure by 

central banks to do the same. 

It’s one thing to warn about a development. It’s another thing to see it unfold 

before your eyes…

In my 2011 book, Currency Wars, on Page 232, I wrote the following: “The IMF 

presented a blueprint for the creation of a liquid SDR bond market, the antecedent 

to replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency with SDRs. 

“The IMF’s paper identifies both potential issuers of SDR bonds, including the 

World Bank and regional development banks, and potential buyers…” (emphasis added). 

That was almost five years ago. 

The SDR market I predicted five years ago is taking shape before our eyes. 

The rise of SDRs is no longer a theoretical experiment; it’s happening in real-

time. 

The rise of SDRs is no longer a theoretical experiment; it’s happening in real-

time.

On July 15, 2016, the IMF issued a playbook calling for more “M-SDRs” (the “M” 

stands for “market” and is a reference to privately issued SDR instruments, 

as opposed to official SDRs, or “O-SDRs,” issued by the IMF itself). 

On Aug. 31, 2016, just six weeks after the IMF greenlight, its sister institution, 

the World Bank, issued SDR500 million (equal to $700 million) of bonds in the new 

world currency. Importantly, the new SDR bonds were issued in China (the lead 

underwriters were four Chinese banks), which has a keen interest in the success of 

the SDR market to undermine the dollar.

Why is the World Bank issuing SDR bonds? It’s not because they have trouble 

borrowing. The World Bank is one of the best credits in the world. They can 

borrow whatever they want, whenever they want, in any currency they want. 

The reason is so that China can invest in SDR assets. How can China buy SDR bonds 

if no one issues them? The World Bank is just accommodating Chinese demand. And 

the Chinese want to invest in SDRs so they can stop investing in dollars. 

There will be many more bond issues like this in the near future. Think of each 

SDR bond issue as another shovelful of dirt on the dollar’s grave.

How much longer will investors sit in dollars waiting for the wipeout to come? 

It’s important to diversify into 10% physical gold to preserve your wealth before 

it’s too late.

.........................

The movement away from the Dollar by various major countries has been 

proceeding slowly for a few years now.  Based on this info from Rickards, 

it seems very likely that movement will accelerate this year.  The world 

appears to be tiring of our Fed Gov't and its promulgation/promotion of 

USA Hegemony.  The propagandists here call it "leading the world", but 

anyone with any common sense at all knows better.

Once the Dollar no longer is the world's reserve currency, we are in for 

some very bad (possibly horrendous) economic times.  Be prepared.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well  

Financial-Economic Crash Update

Below is an email I just sent to a few family and friends.  There's a tiny bit of editing... nothing important.
............................................

Maloney is correct (see link below):  this is undeniable evidence that we're in a Recession; there is no "recovery".  Since '08-'09, we've had a series of weak "dead cat bounces", not just of the Stock Market, but of the entire economy.  They haven't been sustainable.  The current Stock Market is a poor indicator anyway--- it's in an artificial Bubble created completely by the Fed... and the chickens are coming home to roost... probably within a year or so... at most, by no later than 2020 or thereabouts.  Just a guess.  No one knows "when", but there is no more "if".  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1He-bpM8MI

Sorry, folks, but now there's little to no doubt that we're in for really bad economic times.  Don't believe the Propaganda from the Powers-That-Be.  NeoFeudalism is on its way.

Get out of Mega Banks, get out of the Stock Market, stock up on household goods, hang onto and/or acquire as many hard assets as you can, cash in any T-Bills (Fed Bonds) you might have, squirrel away some cash, and watch the Bond Market rather than the Stock Market.  The current Housing Bubble is predicted to burst anywhere from very soon to no later than 2024.  The Dollar Crash could be anytime... all that's needed is for China, Russia, India, etc. to accumulate a little more gold.  Once China launches a (to some degree) gold-backed currency, the sound of the rush from the Dollar will be deafening.  That's only one event that could bring down the Dollar; there are several.

Once one Sector goes, the obscene, bizarre Financial Derivatives Market (estimated at $1.5 quadrillion) will bring everything down...probably worldwide.  Banks, Mega Hedge Funds, Insurance giants, et. al. are making billions off Derivatives sales (while creating essentially zero jobs in the process), but don't have enough reserves to cover all defaults.  It's 2008-09 on steroids...super steroids.  Be Prepared.

Don't let the State-Corporate Complex mold your mind anymore.  Reject all Edward Bernays style Propaganda Kool Aid.  You can't miss it; they don't even try to lie with subtlety anymore.  It's blatant lying:  "There's no price inflation worth mentioning"; "The unemployment rate is now only 5%"; "The dollar is strong"; "The Fed has it under control...they're doing a great job"; "The recovery is proceeding"; "Some banks are too big to fail [and prosecute]"; and on & on.  Please, enough of the lies.

By the way, this is not a Right v. Left issue.  Forget that paradigm; this is way above that distraction.  To use an educational metaphor:  this is at the post-doctorate level; the Right-Left paradigm is at the second grade level.

............................................

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Here's Why Many People Don't Seem to Get It

Below is an email I just now sent to family and friends.  It has been edited a tiny bit.
.........................................

Here's why many Americans seemingly don't grasp the dire economic straits that exist today...not only here, but worldwide.  This piece really nails it.  In the 1st half, the concept of "averages" and the "hollowing out" of the Middle Class; in the 2nd half (starting about 13:00), how the System is "liquidating" all the gains since WW II, why mathematicians would laugh some economists right out of the room, and the fact that the Bond Market is much more important than the Stock Market.

The obvious is stated clearly, & the style, facts, and pace produce many huge laughs...the situation is both comical & tragic.  For those who don't know, Max Keiser was a stock broker for many years before becoming a pundit.  He's a strong Capitalist, but abhors Crony Capitalism and Neoliberalism.  [The latter two are plundering the world, & it's right in plain sight.  Most high-level politicians in America & much of the developed world are Crony Capitalists & Neoliberals.  Their overall records leave no doubt of that.] 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeBGZh3_psA&index=35&list=WL

..................................................

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Changing Horses!

I've been doing this Blog for a bit over nine years now.  This is post number 301.  One can say only so much about the philosophy and actions of the State-Corporate Complex, aka, the Corporatocracy, the Plutocracy, the Oligarchy, the Shadow Government, the Plutonomy (Google it), CRONY Capitalism, the Rule of the Super-Rich, etc.  I find that mostly I'm repeating myself nowadays...or merely commenting on some current event.  It's time to change horses.

After watching a couple of short documentaries on the "Urban Homestead" on YouTube, it came to me that the guy & his family featured in those films are right on the money--- that's a good way to overcome the System described in the paragraph above.  It's not apparent at first, but the more one thinks about it, the more the truth of it comes out.

Consequently, I'll be cutting way back on posts here.  Last night I launched a new Blog, www.ContainerGardening2016.blogspot.com  ...please have a look.  I thank all the viewers, from all around the world, for spending your valuable time here for the past nine years.  That's very much appreciated.  From time to time, as the Economic Crash proceeds, I'll post a piece here again.  My main focus, though, now will be on the new site.

I urge everyone to view the YouTube pieces on the Urban Homestead, especially the one that was an award-winning short film in 2009.  In this technology-crazy modern era, we simply must become more self-sufficient.  That's one reason I started ContainerGardening2016.  Even if you have zero interest in the subject, please have a look.  Container gardening is relatively easy, inexpensive, saves you money, and, believe it or not, it's a way to fight/shun the Corporatocracy.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Some of the Corporatists Finally are Waking Up re: the Economic Collapse

Quotes from---
Goldman Sachs:  "We are witnessing a Stock Market exodus.";
Bank of America:  "The U.S. may already be in a Recession.";
Wall Street Journal:  "A Hedge Fund Exodus";
CNBC commentary:  "This [the weak consumer] could be the 'Black Swan' for the economy.";
                                 "We are in the midst of a deceleration in the economy, and the chain of                     dominoes leading to a recession has started to fall.";
                                 "This is the foreshadowing of a recession.";
JP Morgan:  "An economic crisis is inevitable.";
                   "The U.S. economy is steamrolling toward a Recession."
                   "Recession risk in the U.S. is rising rapidly.";
Bloomberg:  "The Shipping News Says the World Economy is Toast.";
                    [The Baltic Dry Index is way down.]
                    "The clouds are gathering again over the global village we live in; they are getting darker every                        day.";
CitiGroup:  "The global economy is on the brink of a Recession.";
                  "The global economy seems trapped in a death spiral...";
US Bank CEO:  "I worry that the economic, political issues can impact people's incentive to consume and                                their optimism to go down. That's what worries me."
                          [Well, it's difficult to maintain an incentive to consume when:  your wages are stagnant; or                                you have a part-time or temporary job; or you're unemployed; and the cost of living                                     (especially groceries and rent) keeps going up.  Hello.]

The above institutions/people have only scratched the surface relative to the Economic Crash that already has started, but at least it's a start.  Now, if we can get the politicians to admit what's going on, maybe we'll get somewhere.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well, and Best of Luck to Everyone

The American Empire and the Democrat Hawks

Yes, the Republicans (in general) are Hawks, too; but this is about the Democrats.

See the last featured piece on the news broadcast of DemocracyNow.org for May 3, 2016.  The title is something like, "Clinton is a Legendary Hawk"; the interview is with Jeremy Scahill (NYT best-selling author) & Glenn Greenwald (Pulitzer Prize in journalism), both co-founders of TheIntercept.com.  They discuss the foreign policy Hawks, Obama, Clinton, & Sanders...and the Democratic Party Establishment that supports a militaristic foreign policy.

Misinformation & outright Propaganda have resulted in much public support for a militarized U.S. foreign policy that is not only unAmerican, but unethical, immoral, & illegal as well.  Never mind that the Corporatist, Crony Capitalist, Super-Rich are the primary beneficiaries.  

The lesser of two evils is still evil.  The game is rigged...don't play.  Boycott all national elections...it doesn't much matter who is in high office.  [If you absolutely can't give up the opium of the masses (voting), then at least vote for a worthy Third Party candidate.]

The probability is very high that sometime (no one knows when) after the election, one of two things---or both---will happen:  an Economic/Financial Crash and/or a major War.  [Of course, they possibly could happen before the election, but I doubt it.]

The "international financial coterie", to which Professor Carroll Quigley (Bill Clinton's mentor at Georgetown U.) referred, will oversee the aftermath...elected U.S. politicians will not.  [It's not a "conspiracy"; it's simply political reality.]

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Dollar's Days are Numbered - the Crash, Central Banks, Fiat Currency, & Gold

I'm not an economist, monetary theorist, or anything of the sort; however, I can read and I have a fairly good grasp of Logic.  Consider the following.

1.  The Dollar has been described as the best of the worst houses in a really bad neighborhood.  To one degree or another, all fiat currencies in the world are in deep trouble.  The great, decades-long Fiat Currency Experiment is on the brink of going down in flames.

2.  Supposedly, the USA (& thus the world) ended being on the Gold Standard in 1971.  If that's completely true, why are Central Bankers (except for Canada) so concerned about gold...and especially, the price of gold?  Why is China buying tons of gold per month?  Why are India, Russia, & every other country that can afford it adding to their stockpiles of gold?  Why is the Gov't of the USA keeping any gold at all?  [Especially given the tremendous public debt we've accumulated; it would appear that we have no intention of ever repaying the principal on that debt.]

3.  Deutsche Bank recently confessed to gold (& silver) price-fixing/rigging, and is informing on the other banks in the price-fixing/rigging cartel...including some Mega Banks on Wall Street.

4.  Prices of gold (& silver) have been illegally, artificially suppressed for years because the price of gold (in particular) is an indicator of the health of the Dollar...and of the health of any other fiat currency.  When the price of gold goes up, that means the Dollar has weakened.

5.  Gold is a store of wealth & confidence...confidence in the value of precious metals.  Fiat currency is a store of confidence only...confidence in paper and gov'ts.

6.  I don't recall the details, but just recently, China pegged the value of the Yuan to gold...some sort of benchmark.  It seems obvious that once China has accumulated a sufficient amount of gold, it's going to issue a Gold-Backed Currency...backed to one degree or another.  If and when that happens, that's the end of the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  [Of course, that end can occur in other ways, as well.]

7.  Some people argue that a Gold Standard nowadays is not feasible because of the greatly expanded (compared to, say, 1930 or 1950) money supply versus a finite amount of gold in existence.  As the international economist, Jim Rickards, points out:  that's a fallacious argument because what matters is the price of gold, not the amount.  At $10,000 per ounce, no problem.  As the currency supply expands even more, the price of gold would go up even more.

8.  A new Gold Standard would put a clamp on unrestrained spending by gov'ts...that's why some Oligarchs and most of their minions in gov'ts everywhere are against returning to any kind of Gold Standard.  It appears that China soon may change all that.

9.  Countries already are dumping Dollars, but it's not much more than a trickle compared to what's likely coming.

10.  In addition to all the above, world debt is at $225 trillion...the highest it has ever been, the total value of bizarre financial derivatives out in the Market is now estimated to be about $1.5 quadrillion, Stock Markets are giant Bubbles, unemployment is soaring (our Gov't doesn't have a clue as to what the unemployment rate is...their markers for calculating that are grossly incomplete), the real estate market is a Bubble, manufacturing is declining fairly rapidly, part-time and temporary jobs are on the rise, the Dollar continues to be debased by the Fed, the economy is deflating, real wages either are stagnant or declining, the Middle Class continues to shrink, 51% of American households now earn only $30K or less per year, debt (both public & private) is crushing the Dollar and the economy, the incomes of the Super-Rich continue to increase, the world economy is stagnant, the People are pissed off, and Gov'ts continue to placate everyone with Edward Bernays style Propaganda...but that's not working very well anymore.

11.  To top it off, we're in the beginning stages of a worldwide Economic Crash.  Some analysts say it will be as bad as, or worse than, the 1930's Great Depression.

12.  And finally, several high-level politicians in several different countries appear to be attempting to provoke a major war...that includes some high-level politicians in the USA.  Historically, that's what the Powers-That-Be do when economies are failing and the monetary system is crashing.
......................................................
The good news is that educated People everywhere are rising up peacefully and rejecting SSDD by protesting, boycotting, shunning, rejecting, and refusing to be silent.  The Propaganda Kool Aid is being thrown out.  The Sheeple have become the Lions. I suspect that Oligarchs everywhere are beginning to tremble.  All across the political spectrum, We the People (many of us, anyway) have had enough.  It's past time to peacefully dethrone the CRONY Capitalists, Globalization Gurus, and Financialization Elites.  It will be a long haul, but it's do-able.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well