The OVERDUE Recession is Starting NOW

Preface
Below is the latest email (slightly edited here) I sent to family & friends.  The Recession hasn't officially started, because the Powers-That-Be in Gov't need at least two calendar quarters (I think) of data before declaring it.  Anyone who doesn't have his/her head buried in the sand, though, probably would agree:  this is the beginning.  Act accordingly, as follows.
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Be safe, & keep stocked up.  This is the start of a Recession...possibly even worse, a Depression.  Irrational exuberance re the economy already is evaporating.  Distribution of goods already is being affected.  "Runs" on grocery stores already (just barely) have started.

If anyone never has believed me in the past about the overdue Recession, believe this now:  it has started.  

The covid-19 Black Swan, predicted by Daniel Zhang, is at the beginning of crushing the economy.

We'll all survive that, but those of us with a cache of extra household goods (not just food) will be much more comfortable than others.  Distribution of goods eventually will slow way down...temporarily...maybe only for a couple of weeks, maybe for a bit longer.  It hasn't kicked into high gear yet, but it will...no one knows exactly when.  Stock up... food, OTC meds, paper goods, anything you use daily or weekly.

Thanks to the slow response (& lack of previous preparedness) by most governments--- especially in the USA ---covid-19 sooner or later will infect multiple millions, and will devastate the world economy.  If we all don't pull together on this situation, many fewer millions will die (directly or indirectly).  That's not hyperbole.

p.s.  Worldwide:  140,000+ cases; 5,300+ deaths; 123 countries (including "territories").

USA:  1,650 known cases; 41 deaths; 47 known States.
Compare these numbers to those in the March 10 post/essay immediately previous to this one.

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Not only my opinion.  "Be Prepared"  (A long, long time ago, I was a Boy Scout.  For those who don't know, that's their motto:)

Some of the Corporatists Finally are Waking Up re: the Economic Collapse

Quotes from---
Goldman Sachs:  "We are witnessing a Stock Market exodus.";
Bank of America:  "The U.S. may already be in a Recession.";
Wall Street Journal:  "A Hedge Fund Exodus";
CNBC commentary:  "This [the weak consumer] could be the 'Black Swan' for the economy.";
                                 "We are in the midst of a deceleration in the economy, and the chain of                     dominoes leading to a recession has started to fall.";
                                 "This is the foreshadowing of a recession.";
JP Morgan:  "An economic crisis is inevitable.";
                   "The U.S. economy is steamrolling toward a Recession."
                   "Recession risk in the U.S. is rising rapidly.";
Bloomberg:  "The Shipping News Says the World Economy is Toast.";
                    [The Baltic Dry Index is way down.]
                    "The clouds are gathering again over the global village we live in; they are getting darker every                        day.";
CitiGroup:  "The global economy is on the brink of a Recession.";
                  "The global economy seems trapped in a death spiral...";
US Bank CEO:  "I worry that the economic, political issues can impact people's incentive to consume and                                their optimism to go down. That's what worries me."
                          [Well, it's difficult to maintain an incentive to consume when:  your wages are stagnant; or                                you have a part-time or temporary job; or you're unemployed; and the cost of living                                     (especially groceries and rent) keeps going up.  Hello.]

The above institutions/people have only scratched the surface relative to the Economic Crash that already has started, but at least it's a start.  Now, if we can get the politicians to admit what's going on, maybe we'll get somewhere.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well, and Best of Luck to Everyone

Notice How the Corporate Media Take a Terrorism Story...

and beat it to death...over and over...day after day.  I'm not saying these fanatical, philosophically ignorant, "true believers" are not dangerous (whether it's "jihadists" or some nut attacking Planned Parenthood), but the fact remains, you have more chance of being killed by lightning than by a terrorist.  Plus, while the stories of terror attacks are "in-depth", there's hardly a peep from the Corporate Media about how the U.S. Govt's military misadventures (especially drone attacks) are generating terrorism, not preventing it.

Here's what we all really should be afraid of---
1.  Neoliberal politicians---such as McConnell, McCain, Obama, Schumer, etc. ad nauseam---who are backing policies and laws that are destroying this great Land economically.
2.  The fact that we are in a deep Recession with an imploding economy.
3.  The fact that the world economy is in deep trouble...mostly because the Powers-That-Be still are shifting wealth from the Lower & Middle Classes to the Upper Crust...at an astounding pace.
4.  The Fed Reserve engenders Boom-Bust economic cycles; it doesn't prevent them.
5.  The true unemployment rate in America is somewhere between 20% and 40%.
6.  The fact that Edward Bernays style Propaganda continues to mold minds to the benefit of the Rich and Powerful, and to the detriment of the rest of us.

I vote for some in-depth reporting on those fearsome items.  I realize that the true economic situation may not be "flashy" news, but it's much more valuable than the fact that the latest nutcake criminal pledged her allegiance to ISIS...which I've heard on the Corporate Media now for about four straight days.  Who gives a damn about to whom she pledged anything?  Yes, Terrorism poses a danger of sorts; but Neoliberalism is a much greater danger.  Bizarre financial derivatives and Financialization are much greater dangers.  Wall Street still running amok is a much greater danger.  Economic/Financial Bubbles bursting are a much greater danger...especially now.  A Police State is a much greater danger.  Outright lies by politicians and bureaucrats such as Clapper and Brennan and Obama and Trump are a much greater danger.  Blatant Propaganda is a much greater danger.  Criminal Mega Banks (whose CEOs think they are Masters of the Universe) are a much greater danger.

The Corporate Media are complicit with other Powers-That-Be (both public & private) in distracting, dividing, and in general, conquering Lower & Middle Class Americans, thus completely destroying the "American Dream".  They all do it not just for money, but for power and control as well.  Finally, once again, it's not any kind of grand "conspiracy".

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Thanks for the Great Response...

to my offer in the post titled, "How to Prepare for the Coming Financial and Economic Crash", dated Monday, September 28, 2015.  Thanks, too, to those of you who later had kind remarks relative to the Guide.  That makes the effort of constructing it worthwhile.
Happy Trails
p.s.  As you probably know by now, I'm fairly certain that the Crash already has started.  It may take a few months or even a year to reach critical mass.  Good luck to us all if my best guess is correct.

Iceland & Greece Have it Right

Iceland is well on its way to a complete economic recovery.  Greece has just started, but is on the right path.  How are economies saved or returned to a healthy state?  The answer to that has several facets; the solution to the problem must be based on History, Logic, and plain common sense...as follows.

1.  Mega Banks are not the Holy Grail of Economics.  If they run their businesses into the ground by making bad investments, they should be allowed to fail.  Bailing out casino-type banks is a horrible idea... it saves the rich & powerful, not the economy.  The "too big to fail (and jail)" banks here in the USA became 38% larger than they were before the 2008 Crisis.  Most of them took their bailout money AND the trillions of dollars loaned to them at POINT 25 percent interest by the Fed Reserve and used it to:  give huge bonuses to top management; engage in more casino capitalism; loan money back to the Fed Gov't; increase their lobbying efforts in DC; and buy up other banks.  Did they create any jobs?  Almost none.  In general, Financialization does not create jobs or benefit the economy in the long term.

2.  Whether owed by consumers or governments, in a crisis debts either should be written down to amounts that feasibly can be paid back, or totally forgiven.  Selling off public infrastructure to private companies and/or instituting or coercing "austerity" will not benefit the economy or the People.  About 70% of our economy here in America is driven by consumer spending; I'm guessing it's a similar figure in most other developed countries.  For an economy to be saved or to recover, people have to have money to spend.  Saving a bank that can afford to pay a $30 billion civil fine for FRAUD is not going to save the economy.  Such a bank should be left to die, and the top management (where appropriate) should be sent to prison.

3.  Stop drinking the Edward Bernays style Propaganda Kool Aid put out by Gov't elites and the Corporate Media saying that the sky will fall and the world economy will crash if speculative mega banks are not saved.  That's a complete fairy tale... at best, it's ignorance... at worst, it's blatant deceit.  Many economists agree that no such thing would have happened.

4.  Never get involved with the IMF.  It's nothing more than an oligarchical racket.  If you're already involved, never accept their "structural adjustments".  Years ago, several countries in South America learned that lesson the hard way.

5.  Understand that Neoliberals in both the public & private spheres are creating economic structures that are rushing countries into NeoFeudalism.  Very few politicians are opposing them.

6.  In a very real sense, banks should be a public utility.  They should be loaning money to encourage manufacturing on home soil, rather than gambling on derivatives, foreign currencies, and other insider scams that create no jobs.  In terms of the economy, the bane of the last 30-40 years has been Financialization... paper shuffling for the benefit of the Super-Rich.  We need public banks.  Private, casino-capitalism type banks could still exist, but should not be allowed to use depositor funds for speculation OR to get beyond a certain size.  Reinstate Glass-Steagall.

7.  Understand that agreements such as the proposed TPP are a disaster for economies and the People.  They benefit the Oligarchs at the expense of the rest of us.  Don't believe politicians like Obama or McConnell, who both lie about the TPP.  Even our new Secretary of Defense either is ignorant about the TPP or lying about it.  See citizen.org/tpp

8.  Stop being partisan in politics.  Using America as an example, at the highest levels the politicians are almost ALL on the Neoliberal Team... the Team benefitting Oligarchs at our expense.  Consider this:  80% of us are in favor of raising the minimum wage; 90% of us want the Mega Banks broken up; 80% believe our agreements regarding NAFTA and the WTO should be revised or dumped; and, a vast majority (I forget the %) of us want corporate criminals to be sent to prison...which usually does not happen here.  So, what are our so-called "representatives" doing about all that... not much at all.  42% of Americans now are neither Republicans or Democrats; rather, they are Independents.  The strategy of the Oligarchy, which is using hot-button social/cultural issues to Distract-Divide-Conquer us, is beginning to fail.  Many, perhaps most people, are seeing that the economy is the number one issue in this country.  They are fed up to the gills with stagnant wages while the Rich & Powerful have seen a 700% increase in their incomes in the last couple of decades.

9.  Finally, this next statement is obvious, so consider it simply a reminder.  To determine those responsible for any economic or financial crisis---and to get a clue as to how to reverse that crisis---just follow the money.

Not just my opinion.  Be Well