The Mother of All Feedback Loops re Human Society

A short while ago, I posted the following as a small part of a new book description---

"the complex feedback loop involving constant economic growth, which requires more energy, which then creates more complexity in society, which then requires more energy, which then creates even more complexity, etc. is ruining our habitat;".

This essay is an expanded view of that concept.

In our past (and ongoing) pursuit of infinite economic growth, we've created a System, a "Superorganism" according to the ecologist, Nate Hagens.  This System is so large, so filled with complexity, and so out-of-control that a) it can't be fully described, and b) it can't be reined-in, and c) it's ruining the ecosphere.  It's the ultimate Rat-Race.  It's a primary cause of our ecological overshoot.  It's a runaway machine with no one at the helm.  It's literally killing us, not only with pollutants, but also with food insecurity, the stress of job insecurity, inadequate health care facilities, wars, inequality and inequity, declining democracy, and the like.  About twenty percent (maybe less) of Earth's human population are managing to stay afloat in the ongoing energy binge; the rest of us are in a slow descent to subsistence living.

[The twenty-six richest people on Earth own as much wealth as HALF the entire world's population combined.  In a civil society, that's an obscenity.  It's most likely also why the Rich and Powerful (perhaps with a few exceptions) want the runaway System to continue.  They appear to not be long-term, comprehensive, holistic thinkers.]

The ever-increasing complexity is causing significant problems in the arenas of:  global supply chains, manufacturing, transportation, consumption, extraction of natural resources, generation and distribution of electricity, health care equity, income inequality, institutional functioning, and more.  As society becomes more complex, the need for more and more energy increases.

Even a High School biology student could tell you with a high degree of certainty that such a scenario is unsustainable on a planet with finite resources.  Unfortunately, it appears most (not all) of the Powers-That-Be are relying on ideology, not science, to navigate through this current Crisis.  They appear to believe the benefits of our 150-year energy binge are the norm, but fail to see the Mother of All Feedback Loops, and the negative externalities of fossil fuel use.  They also don't seem to grasp the looming minerals problem relative to our necessary transition to Green Energy.  Never mind the soil crisis and the impending food supply shortage.

According to the mining engineer and geologist, Simon Michaux, in about only five years there will be serious problems regarding necessary minerals for Green energy.  In about ten years, agriculture also will be having significant problems.  It all revolves around energy.

If we don't voluntarily reduce our energy use, we'll be forced to by lack of cheap, easily available, and abundant fossil fuels AND lack of cheap, easily available and necessary minerals (about 70 of them) for renewables.  Less energy use will lessen eco-overshoot by leaps and bounds.  It also will slow down the Rat-Race by lessening societal complexity.  This all can happen if we phase out of infinite economic GROWTH, and phase into economic development in a steady state economy.  [See https://steadystate.org/ ]

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well, and Be Aware

More on: "Choices & Change on the Path to a Sustainable Existence..."

 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CSSVWB3N?ref_=pe_93986420_774957520

If you would like a free pdf copy, email me with the title, "Choices & Change".

Below is a list of major topics in the book---

• why we're blind to the Big Picture regarding the "carbon pulse" (fossil energy), and what it will take to transition away from it;
• why the pursuit of infinite economic growth must be abandoned ASAP;
• our blindness regarding mineral requirements for a Green economy;
• while "Going Green" is necessary, unfortunately the present approach by the Powers-That-Be is insufficient;
• why we are not superior to and separate from Nature;
• why our society must convert from high-energy use to low-energy use;
• the complex feedback loop involving constant economic growth, which requires more energy, which then creates more complexity in society, which then requires more energy, which then creates even more complexity, etc. is ruining our habitat;
• ecological overshoot is THE problem, but Powers-That-Be mostly are trying to address only the symptoms of that;
• why there's a soil crisis, and the best choices for resolving it;
• ditto for the fresh water crisis;
• ditto for the food crisis;
• why healthy ecosystems and biodiversity are the bedrock of our existence;
• how factory farming is ruining agriculture, and the best choice forward;
• what many people don't seem to understand about science;
• what is "sustainability", and numerous examples of it;
• the shift in our ethics which is necessary for humans to survive and thrive;
• the propaganda coming from the Corporatocracy;
• why the petrochemical industry must be reined-in;
• why "The Market" can't solve the ill effects of Climate Change; and
• what's needed for a bright future for us and our descendants.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"Choices & Change on the Path to a Sustainable Existence..."

 My second book is now available at the link below.  Please read the Description, in which I discuss who probably would enjoy the read and who would not.    

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CSSVWB3N?ref_=pe_93986420_774957520

If interested at all in sustainability, you may also want to read a sample of the Introduction.  Click on "Read Sample" in the upper left quadrant of the page.  From time to time, I'll post other excerpts on this venue.  A hardback version will out soon.  I doubt that an eBook will be because (as I learned with the first book) getting it up and out is somewhat of a nightmare for a High Tech Dummy like me - even if I hire someone to do the eBook formatting.  😵

In any case, Thanks to All for your consideration, and 

Happy Trails,

Scott

Holism & Reductionism REDUX

This is being reposted because understanding it is crucial to dealing with our current socio-eco-econ-ethical Crisis.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_kbt7h1YRw&list=WL&index=63

There's plenty of evidence indicating both public and private Powers-That-Be are, for the most part, relying strictly on the reductionist method of analysis when working on our current, worldwide problems.  It appears little thought is given to the holistic approach.  If such really is true, then efforts to mitigate or eliminate those problems most likely will fall short.

All the primary aspects of our Crisis are interconnected, and THE main problem is ecological overshoot.  Ocean acidification, excessive natural resource depletion, pollution of water, air, and land, soil degradation, food insecurity, famine, decreasing fresh water availability, drought, climate change, social unrest, and more are all caused by humans engaging in eco-overshoot.  This all means the problem is extremely complex, and that means addressing it must include a holistic synthesis.  "Systems thinking" is required.

Details are in the short video at the link above.

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Not only my opinion, Be Well

Wars, Governance, Complexity, the Astonishing Decline of USA's Diplomacy, and More

 The ecologist, Nate Hagens, interviews Chuck Watson, an expert with decades of experience in the geopolitics of the Middle East, the USA, and Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMVe4nxvQ6U

AT LEAST watch the first 20 minutes or so of this penetrating piece.

In our evolutionary history, we humans have moved further and further away from the reality of Nature.  Instead of Nature, we've used social constructs to make up our own reality.  Mistakenly, it seems most humans now believe the constructs of economics, politics, formal religion, and various other ideologies have placed us in a position superior to and separate from Nature.  That's a false belief, and destructive to our habitat.

Such a view can cause, and is causing, catastrophic consequences.  For example, many governments now appear to believe planetary biophysical limits can be ignored.  As a result of such a belief, natural resources - essential to life - are being depleted or damaged or destroyed at astronomical rates.  One result of that is:  governments are going to WAR over land, water, minerals, fertile soil, natural gas deposits, oil, and the like.  

[See the last online link in the post immediately prior to this piece.  Also see:  https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/6/21/palestines-forgotten-oil-and-gas-resources ]

Nothing can excuse the brutal murder of civilians by Hamas; however, the context of Israel essentially strangling Gaza and the West Bank Palestinians for decades should not be ignored.  It isn't only about religion.  Immediately adjacent to Israel, sitting underneath the surface of Palestinian land are deposits of oil and natural gas.  Israel needs such for economic growth.  Like most countries, it believes in infinite economic growth on a finite planet.

Are our made-up constructs necessary?  Yes, that's a given.  But they must be implemented with care and comprehensive thinking, and if we desire to thrive as a species, they must not ignore the Laws of Nature.  In modern times, our social constructs have made our lives more and more complex.  In fact, the complexity now is so enormous it's beginning to look as though our governments are on the brink of not being able to cope with the situation.  Underneath it all is the monstrous mistake we made after our discovery and development of a bonanza - fossil energy.  Instead of thinking comprehensively and sustainably, we went on a 150-year energy binge.  We're still on it.

That binge brought about (and it's ongoing) an exponential increase in the complexity of society in general.  Complexity doesn't have to be harmful.  An ecosystem is orders of magnitude more complex than any machine ever built by humans.  What can be harmful is having the Powers-That-Be (both public and private) analyzing and dealing with complexity using only linear thinking and a reductionist method of analysis.  A nonlinear, holistic approach needs to be in the mix.  Reductionism can be useful in certain circumstances, but holism (or systems thinking) is required for successfully navigating through complexity.  Very few political Leaders of today appear to have any clue whatsoever of holistic thinking.  If they had such a clue, perhaps we wouldn't be entering an era of natural resource scarcity; and maybe there would be a lot fewer wars, especially during troubling environmental catastrophes.  Perhaps differences among us would no longer impede peaceful cooperation.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"The System" is a Superorganism, & it craves GROWTH at any cost

  "The System" is a Superorganism which started about 10,000 yrs ago with the advent of the raising of annual grains which could be stored.  Ag surplus made division of labor possible, and that yielded hierarchy and inequality.  No conspiracy, just social evolution.  The System kept growing and expanding until eventually it was a runaway machine...with no one at the helm.  Exactly what we have today.  And it just keeps expanding.  It ignores biophysical limits, which means it's bound to collapse.  The only thing in question is "when".

Constant "Growth" requires ever more fossil ENERGY.  The problem is:  "easy energy" (cheap in cost and easily extractable from the ecosphere) - for all practical purposes - is gone.  Never mind (not really) the environmental damage caused by fossil energy; soon the "Energy Return on Investment" (EROI) will discourage investors.  Plus, compounding the problem, manufacturing renewable energy at the required scale requires:  (1) massive amounts of new mining and refining of dozens of metals and other minerals, many of which also are no longer "easy"; and (2) a huge expansion of power transmission lines, the "energy grid".  Both (1) & (2) require significant amounts of time and investment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=undp6sgCIX4

Growth requires more energy, and more of that enables our society to become more complex, and then more complexity requires even more energy.  Establishment thinkers believe such a situation can continue without restraint.  Infinite Growth.  They appear to think Technology and increasing efficiency will allow such to continue.  The Laws of Nature (especially in Physics and Ecology) say otherwise.  We must convert from high-energy use to low-energy use if we are to survive and thrive.

BOTTOM LINE---  Growth of "The System" needs to be not only reduced, but also eventually eliminated.  We humans have used more energy in the last thirty years than in the prior 150 years, and demand for energy still is increasing.  Such a scenario simply is not sustainable.

RELATED NOTE---  Growth also can be one of several causes of war:  https://steadystate.org/the-crisis-in-the-middle-east-is-a-crisis-of-growth/?blm_aid=122634 

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Problem and the Solution

The Problem---

While Leaders spend billions on war machines (never mind killing people and polluting the ecosphere with the wastes of proxy wars and war games), natural ecosystems, economies, and societies continue to unravel.

1.  FIVE banks now more or less have failed, not two.  [Due primarily to massive unrealized losses in the Bond Market.]

2.  Debt Bubbles continue to grow around the world.  [Total Debt now is more than 3 times the world's GDP.]

3.  The food crisis continues.  Literally millions of people are starving, many of them children.

4.  The U.N. has issued a final warning:  eco-crises (especially climate change) are not being addressed at the proper scale to prevent catastrophe.

5.  Extreme drought, extreme flooding in other areas, extreme storms, soil loss, deforestation, extreme temps, etc. all continue.  Meanwhile, new permits are issued for more fossil fuel extraction.

6.  Mass shootings are up, suicides are up, and the pandemic is still killing a few thousand people per week in the USA, which is more than in any other country in the world.

7.  Confidence in both political Leaders and Banks is at a very low level.

8.  Almost HALF the workers in the USA are either in poverty (12%) or on the brink of it (30%).  Not quite, but almost everyone else is living paycheck-to-paycheck.  Meanwhile, politicians claim our economy is "strong".  Right...for the 20% or so in the upper tier.

9.  The serial liar, Trump, is campaigning again in his normal style - whining.  Talk about "Old News", he's it.

10.  "Oil Man" Biden is showing his true colors with the Arctic Willow Project and Gulf leases.

11.  Despots around the world, who sense a peaceful grass-roots uprising, are cracking down even more on populations.

12.  Neoliberal propaganda still abides.

So my question is:  when will people start demanding a different path???

[It's a rhetorical question.]

The Solution---

 https://steadystate.org/discover/definition-of-steady-state-economy/  [Pay particular attention to the blue Menu on the right side of the page.]

More later.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Complexity Connections are why Powers-That-Be cannot seem to grasp the urgency of Earth's Global Crisis

If you're anything like me, for years occasionally you've pondered over the following questions.  With all the problems we've caused in the ecosphere, and the severity of same increasing at a fairly rapid rate, why do governments keep pushing each other to the brink?  Why do they keep going to war, which exacerbates ecological damage and ruins lives?  Why don't they wake up and realize global cooperation is required if we are to survive and thrive as aggregate humanity?  Why do they keep tinkering around the edges of the socio-eco-econ-ethical Crisis?  [I do realize there are many governments around the world to which the above does not apply*** , but it seems to me the overwhelming majority are guilty as charged.]

*** Norway comes to mind, and there are several others.  Overall, the U.S. Government is not in that ecologically literate club, and never has been.

I imagine there are several possible answers to the above questions; however, I believe the following has to be in the top three.  They simply don't understand the complexity and fragility of the ecosphere.  They just don't get it.  They grew up in a world of relative abundance in natural resources, and a population less than half of today's world population.  They seem to be stuck in the Past.

In addition, most politicians and their advisors cling to the idea of perpetually unlimited economic growth.  They believe any damage from such will be mitigated or eliminated by Technology.  So, full steam ahead!

To illustrate the interactions and connections they're missing - concepts which must be understood if we are to avoid the collapse of organized human existence - today I created the following diagram.  [The title is Complexity Connections.]  It harkens back to Barry Commoner's First Law of Ecology in 1971:  Everything is connected to everything else.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Hypothesis Number Two: It's likely the sincere people who are not concerned about...

our ongoing Eco-Crisis have such a view because they analyze and evaluate concepts by means of reductionism.  In that method of analysis, whatever is being examined is broken down into its constituent parts.  Each part is thoroughly evaluated separate from the others, and then the various parts are added together to determine some sort of conclusion regarding the whole.  Such a method can be extremely misleading when dealing with complex (not just complicated) systems.  Complexity is nonlinear.  [A motor vehicle is a linear system; it's "complicated", but the behavior of the "whole" is predictable by examining the individual parts.  Thus, it's not a complex system.]

Instead, for complex items (such as the Eco-Crisis, or even a single ecosystem, or a single living organism), the method of examination described in General Systems Theory should be utilized.  Why?  The approach used in Systems Theory (the updated version doesn't include the word "General") is holistic, not reductionist.  It uses synthesis rather than only analysis of parts.  It is aware of synergy:  a whole system is greater than the sum of its individual parts, which means the behavior of a whole system is unpredictable from the analysis of only its parts.

The above is true because a whole system produces emergent properties, or emergence.  Such properties are found in complex, self-organizing, dynamic, whole systems rather than in individual parts.  Emergence often is unpredicted, and a big surprise to people who adhere to reductionism.  Briefly, following are a couple of examples of emergent properties.

1.  The human body is a complex, dynamic, synergistic system.  It's made up of innumerable parts, from macroscopic to microscopic.  You may examine bones, or blood cells, or the stomach, or brain cells, or the heart, or the adrenal glands...but you will never find the emergent properties of anxiety, fear, anger, or love in those parts.  Only the whole "system" is capable of such.  [The human body produces many other forms of emergence.]

2.  A forest of hundreds of acres also is a complex, dynamic, synergistic system.  Examine a leaf, a strip of tree bark, a beetle, a squirrel, a clod of soil, or even a single tree...and you still won't find the emergent property of rainfall over a large area.  That rainfall often is the result of the process of green plant transpiration in all the trees combined.  Water is taken in by the roots, distributed throughout the plant, and a small portion of it is used to support individual cells of the organism.  The vast majority of it, however, is moved from the leaves to the atmosphere.  Depending upon various factors, it then can result in rainfall.  [Forests also produce many other forms of emergence.]

All ecosystems and all living organisms (even a bacterium) are complex systems.  Synergy applies, nonlinearity applies, and emergence applies.

The point being:  our Eco-Crisis involves complex, dynamic, nonlinear, living systems which only can be properly understood by taking a "systems theory" approach.  It's no wonder to me why people (of all kinds) using a reductionist, linear approach are perplexed, puzzled, and confused over the urgency of the Crisis.  They simply can't see it.  [I'm not talking about folks who see it full well, but are concerned only with promoting corporatism's greed.]

This little essay did not explain how to apply Systems Theory toward understanding and solving the socio-eco-econ-ethical crisis because such an explanation would take multiple, multiple pages.  Books have been written on the subject.  Google it.  Awhile back, I listed several of them on this venue when I shared the bibliography for my first book.  

In two parts:

   http://individualsovereignty.blogspot.com/search/label/Bibliography    In particular, especially see:  Lent, Jeremy 2021; and Ratcliffe, Jennie M. 2021.

With the holistic approach of Systems Theory, we can effectively deal with the present Crisis.  But, to be effective, we must ignore the propaganda coming from corporatists and their political puppets, and we must sway the sincere nonbelievers.

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Not only my opinion.  Take Care