The OVERDUE Recession is Starting NOW

Preface
Below is the latest email (slightly edited here) I sent to family & friends.  The Recession hasn't officially started, because the Powers-That-Be in Gov't need at least two calendar quarters (I think) of data before declaring it.  Anyone who doesn't have his/her head buried in the sand, though, probably would agree:  this is the beginning.  Act accordingly, as follows.
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Be safe, & keep stocked up.  This is the start of a Recession...possibly even worse, a Depression.  Irrational exuberance re the economy already is evaporating.  Distribution of goods already is being affected.  "Runs" on grocery stores already (just barely) have started.

If anyone never has believed me in the past about the overdue Recession, believe this now:  it has started.  

The covid-19 Black Swan, predicted by Daniel Zhang, is at the beginning of crushing the economy.

We'll all survive that, but those of us with a cache of extra household goods (not just food) will be much more comfortable than others.  Distribution of goods eventually will slow way down...temporarily...maybe only for a couple of weeks, maybe for a bit longer.  It hasn't kicked into high gear yet, but it will...no one knows exactly when.  Stock up... food, OTC meds, paper goods, anything you use daily or weekly.

Thanks to the slow response (& lack of previous preparedness) by most governments--- especially in the USA ---covid-19 sooner or later will infect multiple millions, and will devastate the world economy.  If we all don't pull together on this situation, many fewer millions will die (directly or indirectly).  That's not hyperbole.

p.s.  Worldwide:  140,000+ cases; 5,300+ deaths; 123 countries (including "territories").

USA:  1,650 known cases; 41 deaths; 47 known States.
Compare these numbers to those in the March 10 post/essay immediately previous to this one.

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Not only my opinion.  "Be Prepared"  (A long, long time ago, I was a Boy Scout.  For those who don't know, that's their motto:)

Latest COVID-19 Stats - Not Looking Good (at 11 PM, I edited the numbers)

Preface
This info is from several sources.  The main one is:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Multiple charts/graphs there to analyze.
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Latest Stats---
Deaths
Worldwide - 4,026
USA - 31
Known Cases of Infection
Worldwide - 118,000+
USA - 901 (a short time ago, this number was 2, & in the past 3 days, it has more than doubled)
Global Death Rate
Depending on the information source, the fatality rate ranges from
2.3% to 3.48%.  As I pointed out in the last post/essay, even at one percent covid-19 is ten times deadlier than the flu; and the flu kills up to 650,000 people every year.
Countries and USA States Known to Have the Virus
Countries - 105 (not long ago, this number was 50)
USA States - 36 (not long ago, this number was 7)
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Speculation

Trump recently stated (regarding covid-19), "...and then one day, it will just disappear.".  That's possible.  SARS seems to have done that, but maybe not.  It just as likely could have mutated and hopped back to some animal population.  In the future, it could mutate again in such a way that it jumps back to humans.  In my opinion, instead of Trump's scenario about covid-19, it's more likely that we're stuck with the virus...in the same way we're stuck with the common cold and influenza.  They haven't disappeared.

Like with the cold and the flu, it's possible that warmer weather will scale back infections of covid-19; but it's too early to tell.  It's every bit as possible that won't happen.  One thing's certain:  this virus is not contained.  Despite reluctance by WHO and the CDC to declare it such, it's a pandemic.

Trump is looking very grim these past few days.  He's not concerned about covid-19 infections; instead, he's worried about the impact on our economy, and thus the impact on the upcoming election.  The way he talks about the whole virus situation is truly pathetic.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well
p.s.  Again, for any new readers here, I'm not a Republican or a Democrat.  Despite what The Don says, this issue is not about politics.  It's about health.

Here's Why COVID-19 is MORE DANGEROUS Than the Flu

Preface
Stats regarding the 2019-2020 flu season (not yet over) in the USA---
Infections:  over 20 million;
deaths:  over 20,000;
death rate:  .1%  [This is a best guess because not all infections are reported.]
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So, why is covid-19 more dangerous?  The Executive Branch in DC is trying hard to downplay the effects and risks of this new virus.  That's probably because before the virus was detected, Trump cut funding to the CDC and disbanded the global health/pandemic response unit in the Exec Branch.  Now we're in a pickle.  The following is what the Administration is not telling you.

1.  COVID-19 is a new virus... because of that, we have no natural immunity, never mind no vaccine.  World population has been building up natural immunity to the flu for hundreds & hundreds of years.  [Many people still get the flu because viruses mutate faster than bacteria.  Mutations decrease natural resistance to infection, and decrease the effectiveness of flu vaccines.]

2.  COVID-19 appears to spread faster than influenza.  That's based on early evidence, and may change.

3.  Already there are two different strains of covid-19, "L" and "S".  S appears to be the ancestral strain, and L, based on early evidence, seems to be more aggressive.

4.  Even if the death rate of covid-19 is only one percent, that's ten times more deadly than the flu.  The flu kills between 200,000 and 650,000 people per year globally.  Yeah, the flu.

5.  A vaccine for covid-19 is months away, perhaps as long as a year.  Even when it's available, how many new strains of the virus will there be?  In other words, the effectiveness of the vaccine may be questionable.

6.  The flu doesn't have the effect on the world economy (including in the USA) that covid-19 is having.  Brace for bad times.
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Current covid-19 stats---
Confirmed infections:  over 106,000 worldwide and 401 in the USA;
confirmed deaths:  over 3,600 worldwide and 19 in the USA.
Only a few days ago, these numbers were much lower.
When I started this covid-19 series, the virus was known to be in 7 States (USA); it's now known to be in 29 States.  An educated guess:  it's in all 50 States, some just aren't yet confirmed.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

COVID-19 - New Developments Indicate It's Rolling On

1.  In three cases of infection in the U.S. (2 in N. CA, 1 in NW Oregon), the source of the virus has been designated "community", which means unknown.

2.  The first genome study of covid-19 strongly suggests the virus was undetected in the U.S. for six weeks.  That alone (if true) means it's far more widespread here than reported.

3.  The death toll here from this virus went from two to six overnight.

4.  The virus now is known to be in sixteen States.  A couple days ago, it was known to be in seven States.

5.  In Texas, a person who tested positive for the virus mistakenly was released from quarantine... and then went shopping at a mall.

6.  It's now in 65 countries.  A couple days ago, it was in 50 countries.

7.  The number of new cases of infection in China has slowed, but that number still is increasing the total number of cases.

8.  Italy and Iran have been hit hard with new cases.

9.  Worldwide, the number of known infected people is well over 90,000.

10.  Worldwide, the number of deaths from covid-19 is well over 3,000.
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Bottom Line---
COVID-19 is not anywhere close to being contained.
A vaccine is months away from being available, perhaps even a year or more.
Trump can brag about his Admin's containment efforts all he wants to, but the fact is:  covid-19 is nowhere near being "contained" in this Land, it hops around extremely rapidly, and (despite what some people think) an infection can be extremely severe in probably at least half or more of all people.

Speaking of that, I've read some online comments here and there by people who think the disease is no big deal.  Why?  According to them (paraphrased), it's only bad in kids and old people.  [I guess they don't value any kids or old folks.]  Whoa!  Let's think about that.  Currently in the U.S., people 65 or older make up 15% of our population.  Children - 22%.  Then we have to include a category the poo-pooers left out:  people with an underlying medical condition.  I have no idea what percentage of our population they constitute, but I'm guessing it's safe to say that number (not counting kids & seniors) is at least 15%...probably higher.  So, do the math.

While many infected with covid-19 may experience only mild to moderate symptoms, over half the population are at risk for severe effects, even death.  As it becomes more and more obvious in the coming months that the virus is spreading here and is far from being contained, I expect some Powers-That-Be to start spouting the line:  "Hey, for the overwhelming majority of people, the symptoms are no worse than a really bad cold.  Relax.".  If that happens, don't believe it for even a minute.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Disturbing Responses to COVID-19

1.  Trump has put Pence in charge of the battle against the virus in the U.S.  Other than Trump, himself, Pence probably is the most anti-science person in the entire current Administration.  There are so many competing for the anti-science King title, though, that naming Pence as the winner is a tough call.  :)

2.  All statements about covid-19 now have to be approved by Pence before being released to the public.  That includes all informational statements from the CDC, medical researchers, and all medical professionals in the Gov't.  Does anyone besides me see a problem here?  This approval requirement basically is a modified Gag Order, and approval for release will be doled out by a guy who essentially knows jack-squat about Science.

I'm guessing the probability is high that sooner or later crucial info may be kept from us because its release would have a damaging effect on the economy.  The false perception of a "great" economy is crucial to Trump's re-election.

3.  The pundit, Rush Limbaugh, has stated that covid-19 is nothing but a "common cold".  This is often what happens when people with little to no science background delve into a scientific topic.  I imagine he read somewhere that one type of common cold is caused by a corona virus (which is true).  I further imagine he concluded that means covid-19 is a common cold.  Apparently, it never entered his mind that several different types of corona viruses exist, with different degrees of virulence.  SARS is caused by a corona virus, too, but it's far from being a common cold.  Arguably, covid-19 is worse than SARS, especially in regard to how fast it spreads.

Hey, Mr. Limbaugh (& all his fans), covid-19 causes illness MAGNITUDES worse than a common cold.  In your dogmatic pontifications, perhaps you should stick with what you know.  I'm not sure what that is, but am fairly certain it involves nothing scientific.

Finally, the 1918 Spanish flu infected about 500 million people and killed an estimated 50 million...including 675,000 in the USA.  Pandemics never should be taken lightly.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Our Bubble Economy is About to Meet the COVID-19 Black Swan

Preface
I'm not a virologist or toxicologist; however, I do have a Biology and Environmental Science background, both academically and in the field.
Key terms in the title above---
COVID-19:  corona virus disease, 2019;
Black Swan:  "A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight."  ~ Investopedia
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Following are a few facts regarding covid-19, and some speculation on my part.

Facts---
1.  The virus is:  highly contagious, spreading rapidly, and too often deadly (especially in children and old people).
2.  The CDC has stated that there still are a lot of unknowns regarding exactly how this virus behaves.
3.  Except for Antarctica, the virus is now on every continent in the world.
4.  It's now in 50 countries.
5.  Confirmed cases in humans now number 82,550; confirmed deaths from the virus now number 2,810.
6.  Larry Kudlow of the Trump Administration stated that the corona virus epidemic was "fake news", and that the U.S. has the virus "tightly contained".  Trump has stated that China has the virus under control, and the risk to U.S. citizens is "very low". 
7.  The CEO of Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, recently stated that the corona virus (covid-19) is a Black Swan event for the world economy.
8.  The U.S. Stock Market is now down 13%.

Speculation---
1.  The Establishment (including Trump and the CDC) is scared to death to use the word "pandemic"...because of the effect it would have on the economy.
2.  A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease; therefore, covid-19 is a pandemic.  The Establishment would argue the numbers are not yet high enough to warrant that designation.  Okay, that's arguable, so at the very least, it's a pandemic in-the-making.  And the rapidity with which it spreads guarantees the making soon will be completed.
3.  Kudlow, Trump, et. al. are either flat-out lying or demonstrating a degree of ignorance beyond the pale.
4.  The private and public Powers-That-Be will do anything to keep the Bubble Economy rolling along on irrational exuberance.  They rarely will give us the truth regarding covid-19.
5.  This tiny virus very well could bring on our overdue economic & financial Crash.

Not only my opinion.  Be Prepared

The Racial Term "White" is Propaganda

Preface---
Below is a somewhat edited email I sent to a few family members and friends during the recent Senate trial of the impeached Trump.  The overwhelming bulk of the essay is not about the trial.  Rather, it's about immigration, Race, so-called "white" culture, propaganda, ethnicity, and our Fed Government.
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The Repubs have pulled out all the stops in terms of distraction from Trump's criminality.  It's obvious to the point of being comical, but their immigrant-hating, minority "base" supporters will buy it.  I don't think the majority of them are really "racist".  What they fear is that some other culture will become dominant here in the USA.  The same is true for some "white" people in other Western World countries.

According to Pew Research, "non-whites" were the majority in 293 Counties in the USA in 2018, mostly in the Southwest & Northeast, but not totally.  Given the birth rates of different ethnic groups (not "racial" groups, which is a different category), it's a given that so-called "white" culture will not be dominant in the future, and that's only counting the influence of immigrants who are here legally.  So, folks worked up about "illegals" need to get over it.  Besides, a culture doesn't have to be dominant in order to survive.  Look at the early immigrant Germans, Italians, Irish, Jews, Chinese, other Asians, etc.---all different cultures, all hated by some people at different times, & all still here... both the ethnic groups and their different cultures.

In addition, White Supremacists should wake up to the fact that Mexican-Americans belong to the same "Race" as they do.  In a 1950 Supreme Court Case (Hernandez v. Texas), the decision affirmed that although such Hispanics biologically are members of the "white" race they also are an ethnic "class" apart, & as such, should be represented on juries. [There were no Chicanos (Mexican-Americans) on the jury in the trial of Hernandez.]

I've maintained for years that the so-called "white" race isn't white at all.  The proper term is Caucasian.  Caucasians are from Europe (including Spain), the Middle East, North Africa, the Horn of Africa, West Asia, & Central Asia.  [Russia and Turkey are in both Europe and Asia.]  By any reasonable measure, our skin color (& skin color basically means nothing significant) is not "white".  Slap a piece of computer paper on your arm, hand, or face.  It's plain that we are not "white".  That racial term came about because "white" is associated with purity, goodness, and the opposite of "evil" darkness.  [Muhammad Ali pointed that out in one of his college speeches, and he was correct.]  To me, the use of it is subtle racism.  Our Gov't & the Establishment in general once used the correct term, Caucasian; they all now use the term "white".  Shabby, false propaganda.

Sorry, but as a painter who uses many different colors every day, it bothers me that "white" is used--- especially by the Government--- to refer to a particular biological Race.  It also bothers me that too many people appear to be ignorant of the difference between "Race" and "Ethnicity".  Different ethnic groups (with very different cultures) often belong to the same Race.  There is no single "white" culture.  That's a myth, and egregious propaganda.

Wake up, "white" America.  

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well