Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

When the Overdue Recession Hits Us


Preface
I don't have an Economics Degree, so I rely on a broad spectrum of economists and monetary theorists for these essays.  Plus, as a wise man once told me, "You don't have to be a Master Carpenter to recognize a shack.".  :)

A few facts---
1.  Worldwide debt is somewhere in the neighborhood of $250 trillion, which is close to three times the world's GDP.
2.  The U.S. public National Debt is now a tad over $22.5 trillion...more than our annual GDP.  We pay $896 million per day in Interest on that debt.  Politicians in DC are increasing our Debt exponentially.
3.  U.S. personal debt is now just shy of $20 trillion.
4.  U.S. unfunded liabilities now stand at a bit more than $125.7 trillion.
5.  U.S. nonfinancial Corporate debt is now at about $15 trillion...the highest it has been in decades.
6.  Total U.S. Debt (not counting unfunded liabilities) is now a tad over $74.1 trillion.  [See:  USdebtclock.org ]  That's more than three times our annual GDP.

Conclusions---
1.  The world is awash in Debt.
2.  The U.S.A. has a significant portion of that Debt.
.......................................................
Meanwhile, the UK, continental Europe, and Japan all have been adhering to the Zimbabwe "School of Economics" by PRINTING MONEY.  Plus, the USA is on the verge of starting QE-4, more printing of money.  This is all being done to prop up the Stock Market.  In addition, Corporations have been buying back their own stock, thus falsely inflating that Market.  At the same time, Bond Markets have been crashing, capital expenditures have been decreasing, and manufacturing has been slowing down...in the Western World.  In Asia (except for Japan), they have been sticking to conventional economic, monetary, and fiscal policies; but in the West, we are in an Era of Weirdness.
........................................................
Bottom Line---
When the overdue Recession hits, and there's a succession of bursting Debt Bubbles, the impact on Western World Finance and Economies will be much greater than in 2008-2009.  Businesses, a few investment Banks, perhaps some regular Banks, Insurance companies, and associated firms likely will collapse, then unemployment will jump way up, and price inflation will take hold...thus exacerbating the Recession, possibly driving it into a full-blown Depression.

Central Banks refuse to bite the bullet and raise Interest rates (or better yet, let the Market determine the rate) because that would burst the Stock Market Bubble.  We would have a Recession, but we need to because too much money is chasing too few goods.  Big-time inflation is coming unless we dial back all this monetary craziness.
........................................................
Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Thursday, May 9, 2019

896 Million Dollars PER DAY


That's how much our Fed Gov't pays in interest on the National Debt...every day.  And yet, DC politicians of both major Parties say the Debt doesn't matter.

By the way, the overwhelming bulk of Personal Income Taxes goes to pay that Interest.  That's the main purpose of Personal Income Taxes.  Central Banks, other Mega Banks, and other Mega Corporations are the primary recipients of those monies.  They hold the vast majority of Bonds & Treasury Notes.  ["Bonds" have maturities greater than 10 years, while "Treasury Notes" have maturities from 2-10 years.]

Gov't Services are paid for by Corporate Taxes (such as they are...Amazon paid zero Income Tax in 2018), excise taxes (highway/gas, liquor, tobacco, firearms, etc.), fees, imposts, duties, and more borrowed money...on which you pay the interest...$896 million per day this year.

Alan Greenspan once made these statements (paraphrased): the USA will never default on its Debt because when we need money, we simply print it; we can guarantee no default, but we cannot guarantee the purchasing power of those dollars.  [Right, Alan, and that's the catch or rub, isn't it?]

Every fiat (or debased) currency in history eventually failed.  The "money" became essentially worthless because the issuing government wound up printing too much of it.  That's currency inflation; price inflation is the result of too much currency inflation.  The more dollars there are, the less each dollar is worth.  Prices then go up in order for producers just to keep even, never mind get ahead.  Compared to the 1913 Dollar, today's Dollar is worth about three cents.  That's why the pair of Levi's jeans I bought in 1961 cost me $3.95, and the Levi's jeans I bought a few days ago were $49.95.  The cost of production (per unit produced) didn't go up; that cost has gone down over the years due to automation, essentially flat wages, foreign factories, etc.  Prices on everything have gone up because the Dollar becomes worth less & less every year.  That's how fiat currency operates.

Currently, we're at the tail end of today's world fiat currency system.  The whole thing (worldwide) is based on so much Debt that's it's unsustainable.  All fiat currencies in circulation today are becoming more & more worthless... because each year they are worth less.  Hello.  Global Debt is now close to $250 trillion; the entire world's GDP is about $84 trillion.  Do the math.  Such a system will fail.  DEBT will kill it.  Governments cannot simply "print" currency to get out of horrendous Debt because the result would be hyperinflation of prices; purchasing power would drop to within a micron of zero.  That's the rub.

Some sort of Great Re-Set is coming, and with it, most likely a worldwide Depression.  Can't say exactly when, but it's virtually guaranteed...all because of the massive Debt Bubble caused by fiat currency and reckless Powers-That-Be.

Not only my opinion.  Be prepared.

"Don't Believe Him"

The Nazis in the 1930's and 1940's used exactly the same propaganda tactic as is used by Trump:  repeat a lie over & over, and m...