Showing posts with label Overdue Crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Overdue Crash. Show all posts

Friday, February 28, 2020

Our Bubble Economy is About to Meet the COVID-19 Black Swan

Preface
I'm not a virologist or toxicologist; however, I do have a Biology and Environmental Science background, both academically and in the field.
Key terms in the title above---
COVID-19:  corona virus disease, 2019;
Black Swan:  "A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight."  ~ Investopedia
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Following are a few facts regarding covid-19, and some speculation on my part.

Facts---
1.  The virus is:  highly contagious, spreading rapidly, and too often deadly (especially in children and old people).
2.  The CDC has stated that there still are a lot of unknowns regarding exactly how this virus behaves.
3.  Except for Antarctica, the virus is now on every continent in the world.
4.  It's now in 50 countries.
5.  Confirmed cases in humans now number 82,550; confirmed deaths from the virus now number 2,810.
6.  Larry Kudlow of the Trump Administration stated that the corona virus epidemic was "fake news", and that the U.S. has the virus "tightly contained".  Trump has stated that China has the virus under control, and the risk to U.S. citizens is "very low". 
7.  The CEO of Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, recently stated that the corona virus (covid-19) is a Black Swan event for the world economy.
8.  The U.S. Stock Market is now down 13%.

Speculation---
1.  The Establishment (including Trump and the CDC) is scared to death to use the word "pandemic"...because of the effect it would have on the economy.
2.  A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease; therefore, covid-19 is a pandemic.  The Establishment would argue the numbers are not yet high enough to warrant that designation.  Okay, that's arguable, so at the very least, it's a pandemic in-the-making.  And the rapidity with which it spreads guarantees the making soon will be completed.
3.  Kudlow, Trump, et. al. are either flat-out lying or demonstrating a degree of ignorance beyond the pale.
4.  The private and public Powers-That-Be will do anything to keep the Bubble Economy rolling along on irrational exuberance.  They rarely will give us the truth regarding covid-19.
5.  This tiny virus very well could bring on our overdue economic & financial Crash.

Not only my opinion.  Be Prepared

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

The BIG Lie


About a month or two ago, Trump & Crew, Big Biz, & the Corporate Media claimed that one of the main reasons our economy is "recovering" was this:  wages have increased 2.9% (I forget over what time span).  Here's what they left out--- price inflation is now at about 2.4%...and rising.  

In addition, the Bond Market is collapsing, the Stock Market is still (despite corrections) overvalued partly or mostly because Corps. are buying back their own stock (thus falsely inflating its value), Debt is increasing (our Public Debt is now well over $21 trillion & rising rapidly, while total public & private USA Debt is a bit over $70 trillion), there are 27 million part-time workers in the USA, half of all the workers here make less than $32K per year, the IMF has launched a 10-year program to replace the Dollar as the world's reserve currency, housing rentals are sky-high, the home-owner Housing Market is in a giant Bubble, and Mega Banks continue to gamble with bizarre financial derivatives...thus continuing the Casino Capitalism that resulted in the 2008 Crash.  Meanwhile, Trump & Crew are busily reducing regulations...especially those on the Financial Sector.

The next Crash---meaning, the next transfer of wealth to the top echelon of the Upper Crust---is both overdue and unavoidable.  Ever since the 1973-1975 Recession, we've had an economic/financial Crash every 7-12 years.  The next one looks to be larger than any since (& including) '73-'75.  There's no reason at all to believe that the Boom-Bust Cycle is suddenly going to stop.  There are many reasons to believe that the next Crash will be the worst in at least the last 45 years. 

Be prepared.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"Don't Believe Him"

The Nazis in the 1930's and 1940's used exactly the same propaganda tactic as is used by Trump:  repeat a lie over & over, and m...