The OVERDUE Recession is Starting NOW

Preface
Below is the latest email (slightly edited here) I sent to family & friends.  The Recession hasn't officially started, because the Powers-That-Be in Gov't need at least two calendar quarters (I think) of data before declaring it.  Anyone who doesn't have his/her head buried in the sand, though, probably would agree:  this is the beginning.  Act accordingly, as follows.
..................................

Be safe, & keep stocked up.  This is the start of a Recession...possibly even worse, a Depression.  Irrational exuberance re the economy already is evaporating.  Distribution of goods already is being affected.  "Runs" on grocery stores already (just barely) have started.

If anyone never has believed me in the past about the overdue Recession, believe this now:  it has started.  

The covid-19 Black Swan, predicted by Daniel Zhang, is at the beginning of crushing the economy.

We'll all survive that, but those of us with a cache of extra household goods (not just food) will be much more comfortable than others.  Distribution of goods eventually will slow way down...temporarily...maybe only for a couple of weeks, maybe for a bit longer.  It hasn't kicked into high gear yet, but it will...no one knows exactly when.  Stock up... food, OTC meds, paper goods, anything you use daily or weekly.

Thanks to the slow response (& lack of previous preparedness) by most governments--- especially in the USA ---covid-19 sooner or later will infect multiple millions, and will devastate the world economy.  If we all don't pull together on this situation, many fewer millions will die (directly or indirectly).  That's not hyperbole.

p.s.  Worldwide:  140,000+ cases; 5,300+ deaths; 123 countries (including "territories").

USA:  1,650 known cases; 41 deaths; 47 known States.
Compare these numbers to those in the March 10 post/essay immediately previous to this one.

........................

Not only my opinion.  "Be Prepared"  (A long, long time ago, I was a Boy Scout.  For those who don't know, that's their motto:)

Our Bubble Economy is About to Meet the COVID-19 Black Swan

Preface
I'm not a virologist or toxicologist; however, I do have a Biology and Environmental Science background, both academically and in the field.
Key terms in the title above---
COVID-19:  corona virus disease, 2019;
Black Swan:  "A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight."  ~ Investopedia
..........................

Following are a few facts regarding covid-19, and some speculation on my part.

Facts---
1.  The virus is:  highly contagious, spreading rapidly, and too often deadly (especially in children and old people).
2.  The CDC has stated that there still are a lot of unknowns regarding exactly how this virus behaves.
3.  Except for Antarctica, the virus is now on every continent in the world.
4.  It's now in 50 countries.
5.  Confirmed cases in humans now number 82,550; confirmed deaths from the virus now number 2,810.
6.  Larry Kudlow of the Trump Administration stated that the corona virus epidemic was "fake news", and that the U.S. has the virus "tightly contained".  Trump has stated that China has the virus under control, and the risk to U.S. citizens is "very low". 
7.  The CEO of Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, recently stated that the corona virus (covid-19) is a Black Swan event for the world economy.
8.  The U.S. Stock Market is now down 13%.

Speculation---
1.  The Establishment (including Trump and the CDC) is scared to death to use the word "pandemic"...because of the effect it would have on the economy.
2.  A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease; therefore, covid-19 is a pandemic.  The Establishment would argue the numbers are not yet high enough to warrant that designation.  Okay, that's arguable, so at the very least, it's a pandemic in-the-making.  And the rapidity with which it spreads guarantees the making soon will be completed.
3.  Kudlow, Trump, et. al. are either flat-out lying or demonstrating a degree of ignorance beyond the pale.
4.  The private and public Powers-That-Be will do anything to keep the Bubble Economy rolling along on irrational exuberance.  They rarely will give us the truth regarding covid-19.
5.  This tiny virus very well could bring on our overdue economic & financial Crash.

Not only my opinion.  Be Prepared