"LAST WARNING to Family and Friends"

Below is a recent email I sent (slightly edited).

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RE:  the Financial/Economic Crash---

1.  In the past few days, I've watched the analyses of about a dozen or so well-known financial and/or economic forecasters who have stellar past records (multiple times) re predictions on these topics, people such as Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Charley Munger, Ray Dalio, et al.  The clips were no more than a week old.  Long story short (no time for details):  the probability is extremely high that the Crash will begin this year, and it will be a hard landing.  They all agree, with only minor variations.  All that, plus what I've seen for the past few years, reinforces my belief in a 90%-95% probability of the start of a Crash shortly.  [Or arguably, it already has begun.]  It will be global in effect.

NOTE:  I predicted the same thing for 2016, but my confidence in that forecast was only about 75%.

2.  Also viewed about a dozen precious metals analysts (Jim Rickards, Mike Maloney, et al.) who basically agree with number 1 above, & because of that, most say the probability is extremely high for gold to go to about $2200 and silver to about $35 by the end of the year or perhaps Jan. -Feb.  Then, in the following 1 - 3 years, gold at $4K - $5K and silver at $100 - $300.  [Silver has multiple industrial uses, especially in the High Tech sector, & especially in solar energy...never mind the "store-of-value" monetary attraction.  Demand is increasing.]

I don't follow it, but Bitcoin probably will be at a gazillion $. :)

So, plan accordingly...or not.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Rickards, Monkeys, Economists, and Complexity Theory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl9oiXeqzCI&list=WL&index=93

Jim Rickards has a Master's Degree in International Economics, and his analyses have been mostly on the mark in the past.  In this 13-minute clip, he explains WHY the next financial crash (which is overdue) will be "horrific".  The presentation has some good chuckles, and his reasoning makes a lot of sense.

He talks a hundred mph, so you have to listen carefully.  Most economists will not like the content, but they mostly deserve his characterization of them. 

Here's a brief overview of complexity theory.  Don't miss the last half.  Complexity theory is the key to an "emerging post-Newtonian paradigm" which finally is providing a holistic approach to the analysis of complex systems in both natural and artificial arenas.  The short clip below is the best introduction I've seen so far to a truly innovative and revolutionary subject.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-ladOjo1QA

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"There's No Threat to Capitalism Like Capitalists"

Note---
I hope you don't leave this piece before reading the portion about Trump and Mnuchin.  Though the topic below is a bit of history, I do relate it to the players of today.  Plus, I suspect much of the history relayed in the video is mostly unknown to many or most people.
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There's a link below to an interview of William K. Black by Bill Moyers.  Black was a bank regulator key to the production of about a thousand criminal referrals in the Savings & Loan fraud in the 1980's.  He's also a Professor of Economics and Law, and in my view, a genuine American hero.  For more than a quarter century, he has worked tirelessly to expose the ongoing ripoff of the American public by Mega Banks and their political Cronies in DC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXWaAQpofqE&amp=&index=28&amp=&list=WL

In the above clip, Black explains exactly what caused the 2008 Crash and the complicity of Obama, Holder, Geithner, Jamie Dimon, and others.  He also tells us why the same thing will happen again.  This general topic may be old news, but the details in this interview are revealing, breathtaking, and largely unknown by the "average" American.  It's a Must-See, and brutally relevant to today.

Capitalism is a great economic system, but without strong regulations and enforcement it becomes Crony Capitalism-Casino Capitalism-Surveillance Capitalism and a Kleptocracy for the Super-Rich.  History supports that contention.  There's no question about it.

So, what about Trump relative to this essay?  That's probably an eight-hour conversation.  Briefly, though, here are some points to consider---
1.  Elsewhere in this venue, I've explained why he owes Bankers big-time, both literally & figuratively.
2.  He and his Crew are decimating regulations across the board, including Banking regulations.
3.  His Secretary of the Treasury is Mnuchin, who was more or less a foreclosure king during the last Crash.  Because he would make millions, he was overheard saying prior to the last bursting of the Housing Bubble, "I'm hoping for a real estate crash".  He was a Goldman Sachs Banker for 17 years.  He financially supported Hillary in her Primary run against Obama, and then supported Obama in his run against McCain.  He has strong ties to Wall Street, and apparently, no defining political ideology.  In some ways, he's another Paulson.

None of the above speaks well for Trump in relation to the coming Crash.  The Mega Bankers again will make out like the bandits they are...at our expense.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well
p.s.  The title quote is from William K. Black, and it's in the video interview.

Two Differences Between the Last Crash and the Coming Crash

1.  Because of only window-dressing laws/regs (supposedly to prevent another Crash) instituted during the Obama Era, and deregulation during two years of Trump & Crew,

2.  the metrics for the coming Crash now are worse than were those for the last Crash; thus, the next Bust most likely also will be worse.

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https://youtu.be/9F_sxkSHmCo ...

a very poignant & informative video.

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For those who believe there is no imminent Crash coming, all you have to do is look at the time intervals between the Booms & Busts from the 1973-75 severe Recession up to Present Day, and you'll see that we're overdue for the next Bust.  No one has suspended the Boom-Bust Cycle.  If anything, Busts have become more numerous since the establishment of the Fed Reserve in 1913...and the "Nixon Shock" (abandonment of the Gold Standard) in 1971.  

The DC politicians plus the Corporate Media either are lying or they're significantly ignorant when they tell us everything is rosy.  [Very few in the Corp Media have sounded any warning bells at all.]  The Asset Bubbles now are worse than they were just before the 1929 Crash...& those numbers are proportionate, i.e., inflation is taken into account.  Prediction:  the Big Bust will be no later than the end of 2020.  It possibly could be later, but I really doubt it.

Plan accordingly.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Dear President Tweety Bird---

Preface
I really don't like to mock people with name-calling, but the words and actions of your almost constant gaslighting essentially beg for it.  Being far from perfect, I gave in.  Mea culpa.
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Perhaps you would do us all a favor and consider the following points.

1.  It's good that you appear to be withdrawing military troops from Syria.  That's especially true because our involvement in that civil war is unconstitutional.  I'm wondering, though, does the withdrawal include aircraft that do bombing and/or missile attacks?  How about JSOC teams (Special Ops)?

2.  When making your withdrawal announcement, you also claimed (paraphrased here) that we defeated ISIS in Syria.  I think you said, "We won...".  Mr. President, I seriously doubt that even you believe that.  History has shown over and over that war never defeats that type of enemy.  Despite the progress made there (and not just because of our military), ISIS in Syria is far from being defeated.  They merely have faded back into the woodwork for awhile.

3.  Because you tend to lie about half the time, I'm also wondering if you would make public the detailed official Order to withdraw sent to your Commanders in Syria.  You, of course, can redact any sensitive info contained therein.  I mean, surely you don't believe that your Tweety Bird message was any kind of official Order, eh?

4.  How are the seventeen investigations of you and/or your Admin and/or your private companies coming along?  Any info you might share about those?  This is not counting any private investigations that might be going on involving the sixteen women who have accused you of inappropriate sexual behavior or harassment.

5.  How are your gaslighting distractions aimed at We the People doing regarding number 4 above?  Are those distractions working to any significant degree?

6.  Have you read the U.S. Constitution since the 8th or 9th Grade?  Given some of your actions, that seems unlikely.  How about just the 1st, 4th, 5th, & 6th Amendments?  They're really fairly short.  You could easily squeeze them in between golf games.

7.  If you really believe that Mexico is going to wind up paying for your ineffective Border Wall (which should be named, "The Sieve") by you levying tariffs on their goods, has it dawned on you yet who ultimately pays for those tariffs?  It dawned on us (the consumers) quite awhile ago.

8.  Are you aware that 42% of the USA's electorate are Independents, 31% are Democrats, and 25% are Republicans?  I mention that because at times you seem to imply in a braying manner that you have some sort of mandate from We the People.  That's absolutely hilarious.  I'm fairly sure you're not stupid, so most likely your implication is nothing but propaganda.  That's especially likely because 58% of us didn't want you or Hillary to get elected.

9.  Are you aware that, on average, about 50% of eligible voters don't vote in national elections?  It's not because we're lazy; it's because we're fed up with politicians...including you.

10.  With all the Court rulings against your Administration, how is your UNCHRISTIAN immigration policy coming along?

11.  Is there any Head of State in the entire world that you haven't alienated?  At the moment, I can't think of even one.

12.  Most of the people on Earth recognize that we are facing a global, economic/financial Crash.  It's time that you did, too.  The same is true of the worldwide Climate catastrophe.  Start telling the truth.

Finally, don't think for a moment that you have the majority of us fooled.  You aren't any kind of Populist.  While crasser than your predecessors, you're still nothing but a dyed-in-the-wool Plutocrat, an Oligarch.  That's so obvious it's both painful and hilarious.

p.s.  I'm not a Republican or a Democrat, but I think it's highly likely that you won't last through your first term in office...you'll resign or get kicked out.  Given that, perhaps the best course for serious people in the real world (meaning outside the DC Beltway) is to ignore you from this point forward.  You know, just as most of our allies are doing.  You're no longer worth anyone's time or effort...that is, except for investigators.  Your creation of distractions via your childish gaslighting has become boring.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"The Trump Slump" -Or- The Dollar, The Bust, & The Future

I didn't coin the phrase, "The Trump Slump"; that comes from a group of International Bankers.  It resulted from the fact that the U.S. Dollar fell consistently throughout all of 2017.  2018 is boding no better.

Below is a recent email I sent to family & friends.  The title of it was "The Dollar, The Bust, & The Future".
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https://qz.com/1164158/the-us-dollar-just-had-its-worst-year-in-more-than-a-decade-and-2018-will-bring-more-of-the-same/

https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/us-dollar-consistently-falling-throughout-2017/

And so far in 2018, price inflation has increased.

If the economy is "surging" (as stated by NBC), why is the median income here in the USA now only $32,110?  Compare that to the median income in 2000:  $31,514... a bare bones increase in 18 years.  I doubt it even covered the loss of purchasing power due to price inflation.  The economy is "surging" only for the upper 10-15% (or so) of income earners.

Just a reminder...be prepared...I'm guessing the Crash is no more than two years away.  Yes, it's only a guess, but the Stock Market is in a Bubble larger than the one just prior to the 2008 Crash; the same is true of today's Housing Bubble.  The Bond Market Bubble already has peaked & is slowly deflating.  Auto sales are down in 2018.  The PetroDollar is in its death throes.  In less than ten years, the Dollar no longer will be the world's reserve currency; the IMF is seeing to that with a program already underway.  Plus, Fed Gov't spending is increasing more under Trump & the Repub Congress than during the 1st two years of either Bush or Obama.  Our National Debt continues to increase at a phenomenal rate.  [See www.USDebtClock.org] Confidence in the Dollar is decreasing worldwide.

Corporate profits are at an all-time high, but where's the "Trickle-Down"?  Corporations are using those profits to buy back their own Stock, thus falsely inflating that Market.

The primary reason our GDP has increased is:  the Powers-That-Be still count income made by the Financial Sector as adding to the Gross Domestic Product.  In fact, though, the Financiers extract wealth from the economy.  Their income should be subtracted from the GDP.  This has been shown clearly by the economist, Professor Richard Werner.  [His interview clips/lecture clips are on YouTube.]

Finally, in the Boom-Bust Cycle since 1973, we are now overdue for the next Bust.  The only thing in question is:  how large will the next Bust be?

The good news is that it's highly likely that this next Crash finally will bring about meaningful reform in our corrupt, Crony Capitalist system...and very possibly an end to the privatizing of government.  We need to return to a Mixed Economy, like the one that produced the Golden Age of American Capitalism (1946-1972, or some say, '45 through the early '60s).

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Largest Amount of Borrowed Money in Any Quarter in USA History

In the 1st Quarter of this year, the Fed borrowed $488 billion...the largest amount for any Quarter in our history.  The Treasury Secretary claims that the Bond Market is "robust", and can handle the borrowing.  In fact, that Market has peaked and is trending down.  It's starting to collapse.  Our Debt is a Bubble sitting on a pin. 

That amount of borrowing plus the Repub Tax Cuts plus other factors = a big rise in price inflation, probably within a year or so.  Mnuchin (Treas. Sec.) says it's good to have a little inflation..."We want wages to increase."  Better hope inflation doesn't exceed the increase in wages; and sorry, but most likely it will.  It's almost there already...only .5% away from the last wage increase numbers.

So much for fiscal responsibility.  Those in the Congress and the White House who claim to be "Conservatives"...aren't.  NeoConservatives are a horse of an entirely different color.

Try as they may, the Establishment (including Trump & Crew) cannot avoid the metrics of the overdue Economic/Financial Crash on the horizon.  According to a study by Deutsche Bank, countries that don't properly manage their Debt experience a huge increase in Financial shocks, shocks that can severely damage the economy.  That has been our path every 7-12 years since the 1973-1975 Recession.  You can thank the Fed, the Mega Bank Casino Capitalists, and most of our DC politicians.  It should be obvious that the bombastic Trump & Crew are not significantly changing anything for the better.  They aren't draining the swamp; they're draining the country of a decent future.  Take a look at USDebtClock.org ...not just the upper left corner, but the entire table/chart.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

p.s.  Another reminder:  I'm not a Democrat or a Republican.

The Economic and Financial Crash is Just Around the Corner

Best guess--- The Crash probably will be anytime before the end of next year.  No one can predict exactly when.

Today I saw an ad for blue jeans; the price of the britches---$60.

In 1961, similar jeans were $3.95...I know because I remember buying a pair for that price in Ft. Collins, Colorado while I was a student at Colorado State U.  [You remember the damnedest things when you get old:]  So, about four dollars versus sixty dollars; to me, that's hyperinflation...it's already here.  It may be a bit anomalous for hyperinflation because of the long span of time involved, but nevertheless, it seems to me it IS the beast.

Decades of monetary policy from the Fed Reserve have reduced the value of the Dollar from 100 cents in 1913 to about 3 or 4 cents today.  They've purposely debased/devalued the Dollar in order to be able to afford the interest payment on our massive National Debt (ever since that Debt doubled or tripled---can't remember which---during the Reagan years).  They can pay it with ever cheaper dollars.  That's why the Fed is always shooting for 2% inflation... per year. 

Imagine what an ounce of gold would be worth if all the beaches of the world consisted of grains of gold instead of grains of sand.  Whenever the amount of some item is increased in the Market, the price/value of each unit of that item goes down.  Through institutionalized deficit spending, the Fed being the main purchaser of T-Bills (monetizing the Debt), and the horrendous QE for the last 8-9 years, the Fed has made the Dollar almost worthless...by creating huge amounts of it out of thin air.  That's why some jeans are $60 now.  That's why the Fed Budget is in the trillions instead of millions or the low billions.  The Dollar is worth less...a lot less.  One even might say that it's almost worthless.  Of course, the Propaganda from the Powers-That-Be says the Dollar is strong.  What that really means is:  it's the best of the worst.  It's the cleanest dirty shirt...and even that characterization is questionable.

The Gov't always can get more "money".  All it has to do is type digits in a computer.  That's what it does when the Fed Reserve buys Bonds/T-Bills.  Actual currency isn't printed up and handed to the Treasury by the Fed; the Fed simply types the amount onto its Balance Sheet.  It never will "run out".  The problem is that the world is fast losing faith in the value of the Dollar.  We all should be, too.  Countries are dumping the Dollar and bypassing the Dollar right & left.  Those Dollars then come home, which means more inflation, but this time it will be much faster than that from 1961 to the present.  International players such as the IMF and Bank of International Settlements already are looking into replacing the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  Can you blame them?  I think not.

No politician can stop this...it's too late.  We'll survive, but the cost of that survival & recovery will be high.

Don't believe the Elites' current Propaganda.  They're telling bald-faced lies because they're afraid the truth would result in massive panic...including a monumental exodus of capital from the USA.  [To those who think the public & private Powers-That-Be never would lie about such things---please, are you kidding me?  History says otherwise.]

Be Prepared (see previous posts), and Hang in There
p.s.  Your degree of comfort during the real recovery will depend upon your degree of preparation.  And, no, you don't need a bunker & hand grenades; there won't be a massive Mad Max scenario.  The Powers-That-Be would institute Martial Law on a monumental scale before allowing that to happen.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Financial/Economic Crash Update

1.  The Bond Market already is crashing.

2.  That eventually will burst the Stock Market Bubble.

3.  The Dollar is temporarily "strong", but only in terms of being the best house in a really horrible neighborhood.

4.  We currently have the lowest number in years of people with a full-time permanent job.

5.  The current Real Estate Bubble is on the cusp of bursting.

6.  Mega Bank fraud continues...especially in terms of gold & silver price manipulation... because that makes the Dollar appear "strong".

7.  Many countries (especially emerging markets) continue to bypass the USA by forming their own Trade & Finance agreements.

8.  The second largest economy in the world, China, is in deep financial & economic trouble.  Their Crash would affect the entire world.

9.  Italy's financial system is on the verge of collapse.

10.  Though they should bite the bullet, the Fed Reserve most likely will not raise interest rates beyond one time in 2017.  That means more QE is coming, which means Bubbles.  All financial & economic bubbles burst; there hasn't been a single time in human history when that wasn't true.  The longer the Fed waits to bite the bullet, the bigger the Crash will be.

11.  Deutsche Bank is in deep trouble.  Their derivatives portfolio alone could crash them.

12.  Price inflation in the USA already is edging up.

13.  USA sovereign Debt as of tonight is just under $20 trillion... and increasing rapidly.

14.  US Debt held by foreign countries is a bit over $6 trillion, and decreasing rapidly.  Countries are dumping the Dollar.  Those Dollars are coming home; that will decrease the value of each dollar, and that will cause an increase in price inflation.

[See the online "US Debt Clock" for the two items immediately above.]

15.  Various analysts say to look for a continued expansion of the Wall Street Stock Market Bubble in early 2017, and then a massive correction later in the year.  [That massive correction could well become a complete Crash... especially given what's going on in the Bond Market.]

16.  The unmitigated Propaganda here in the USA continues:  "The Recovery is doing fine..."; "The Fed has it under control..."; "Our economy is improving..."; etc., ad nauseam.

17.  50% of American workers have a yearly income of only $30K or less.

18.  The top 1% in America has more wealth than the bottom 95% combined.

19.  The 400 wealthiest individuals here have more wealth than the bottom 150 million individuals combined.

Yes, everything is fine... for a few people.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Financial-Economic Crash Update

Below is an email I just sent to a few family and friends.  There's a tiny bit of editing... nothing important.
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Maloney is correct (see link below):  this is undeniable evidence that we're in a Recession; there is no "recovery".  Since '08-'09, we've had a series of weak "dead cat bounces", not just of the Stock Market, but of the entire economy.  They haven't been sustainable.  The current Stock Market is a poor indicator anyway--- it's in an artificial Bubble created completely by the Fed... and the chickens are coming home to roost... probably within a year or so... at most, by no later than 2020 or thereabouts.  Just a guess.  No one knows "when", but there is no more "if".  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1He-bpM8MI

Sorry, folks, but now there's little to no doubt that we're in for really bad economic times.  Don't believe the Propaganda from the Powers-That-Be.  NeoFeudalism is on its way.

Get out of Mega Banks, get out of the Stock Market, stock up on household goods, hang onto and/or acquire as many hard assets as you can, cash in any T-Bills (Fed Bonds) you might have, squirrel away some cash, and watch the Bond Market rather than the Stock Market.  The current Housing Bubble is predicted to burst anywhere from very soon to no later than 2024.  The Dollar Crash could be anytime... all that's needed is for China, Russia, India, etc. to accumulate a little more gold.  Once China launches a (to some degree) gold-backed currency, the sound of the rush from the Dollar will be deafening.  That's only one event that could bring down the Dollar; there are several.

Once one Sector goes, the obscene, bizarre Financial Derivatives Market (estimated at $1.5 quadrillion) will bring everything down...probably worldwide.  Banks, Mega Hedge Funds, Insurance giants, et. al. are making billions off Derivatives sales (while creating essentially zero jobs in the process), but don't have enough reserves to cover all defaults.  It's 2008-09 on steroids...super steroids.  Be Prepared.

Don't let the State-Corporate Complex mold your mind anymore.  Reject all Edward Bernays style Propaganda Kool Aid.  You can't miss it; they don't even try to lie with subtlety anymore.  It's blatant lying:  "There's no price inflation worth mentioning"; "The unemployment rate is now only 5%"; "The dollar is strong"; "The Fed has it under control...they're doing a great job"; "The recovery is proceeding"; "Some banks are too big to fail [and prosecute]"; and on & on.  Please, enough of the lies.

By the way, this is not a Right v. Left issue.  Forget that paradigm; this is way above that distraction.  To use an educational metaphor:  this is at the post-doctorate level; the Right-Left paradigm is at the second grade level.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The American Empire and the Democrat Hawks

Yes, the Republicans (in general) are Hawks, too; but this is about the Democrats.

See the last featured piece on the news broadcast of DemocracyNow.org for May 3, 2016.  The title is something like, "Clinton is a Legendary Hawk"; the interview is with Jeremy Scahill (NYT best-selling author) & Glenn Greenwald (Pulitzer Prize in journalism), both co-founders of TheIntercept.com.  They discuss the foreign policy Hawks, Obama, Clinton, & Sanders...and the Democratic Party Establishment that supports a militaristic foreign policy.

Misinformation & outright Propaganda have resulted in much public support for a militarized U.S. foreign policy that is not only unAmerican, but unethical, immoral, & illegal as well.  Never mind that the Corporatist, Crony Capitalist, Super-Rich are the primary beneficiaries.  

The lesser of two evils is still evil.  The game is rigged...don't play.  Boycott all national elections...it doesn't much matter who is in high office.  [If you absolutely can't give up the opium of the masses (voting), then at least vote for a worthy Third Party candidate.]

The probability is very high that sometime (no one knows when) after the election, one of two things---or both---will happen:  an Economic/Financial Crash and/or a major War.  [Of course, they possibly could happen before the election, but I doubt it.]

The "international financial coterie", to which Professor Carroll Quigley (Bill Clinton's mentor at Georgetown U.) referred, will oversee the aftermath...elected U.S. politicians will not.  [It's not a "conspiracy"; it's simply political reality.]

Not only my opinion.  Be Well