Trump HAD TO do a 180 Turn, Plus the Coming Depression

Preface
For any new readers here, I'm not a Republican or a Democrat.  I, however, have been a keen observer of American politics since 1956.  I'm a strong believer in Capitalism, but not the Crony-Casino-Derivative Capitalism we have today... which is nothing but a racket, and promulgated by the public and private Plutocrats who run this country.
.......................................

For the past two+ months, the Administration's lies (or at best, completely ignorant statements) about covid-19 continued on, and on.  Finally, Trump and Crew were forced by reality to do a 180 degree turn on their view of the subject.  No one any longer believed what they had been saying.

Examples of previous statements---
1.  The virus is "tightly contained" in the U.S.
2.  It will be "gone by April".
3.  One day soon, it will "just disappear".
4.  Unemployment will be "nowhere near 20%".
5.  "We're doing very good [in handling the crisis], very, very good.".  ~ DJT  I assume he meant, "very well".  No, Mr. President, you're not doing well in handling much of anything... not even presently.

Now, Trump has jumped onto the bandwagon... with too little, too late.

Here's the current situation for the USA---
1.  COVID-19 confirmed cases:  over 239,000.  Total number of cases:  unknown.
2.  Deaths:  over 5,800 (which far surpasses those of the 9-11 attacks).
[Numbers above were updated at 8:30 PM, Mountain Time.]
3.  Testing still lagging behind.
4.  PPE for med facilities and First Responders still inadequate.
5.  Unemployment projected/predicted to be about 30% in June.  [It was 25% in the 1930's Great Depression.]
6.  The probability is high that, if we're not already in one, by this summer we'll be in a full-blown economic Depression.  The metrics are all there.

Trump called covid-19 the "Chinese virus".  I guess that makes H1N1 (swine flu) the "American virus".  It, too, was a pandemic; it lasted a bit over a year & a half.  By Trump's reasoning, arguably we could refer to the current situation with covid-19 in the USA as Trump's Epidemic.  His treatment of most of the crisis thus far has been dismissive, inadequate, and ignorant.  Had he taken things seriously in the past 2 - 3 months, we would be in much better shape at the present time.  Until just recently, his main concern has been for Wall Street, not Main Street.

March 7th the U.S. had 401 confirmed cases and 19 deaths.  Compare that to the numbers above.  Because of a slow initial response by the Fed Gov't, this is only going to get worse... much worse.

We can't blame only Trump & Crew, though, for this public health disaster.  For decades, public health funding has been cut again and again and again.  Neoliberal policies promulgated by the Oligarchs and Plutocrats (both public & private) have been the reason.  The cuts started out years ago in the mental health field, but quickly moved to include physical health as well.  Why?  I only can speculate, but consider the following.

1.  The Super Rich live in a different universe than do the rest of us.  I doubt many of them care much about people who have to use public health facilities.  They probably consider such people leeches of some sort.  As long as the Rich can get private health care for themselves, they don't care about public health care.  I mean, in general.

2.  Plus, the Plutocrats most likely don't see any benefit to themselves in having public money spent on such facilities.  They would rather have it spent on something that allows them to get a piece of the pie... such as war machines, highways, or subsidies for the fossil fuel industry... just to name a few items.

3.  In general, Plutocrats/Oligarchs are Neoliberals, and Neoliberalism greatly favors privatization.  The goal is to privatize the whole world, and that goal is well on its way to being met.

Then we have the non-resilient, weak, and generally poor condition of our economy... headed for a Depression.  That can't all be blamed on Trump & Crew, either.  For decades, both public and private Oligarchs have been (in general) converting our economy to one of just-in-time production--- in whatever factories that haven't moved South or overseas--- and to one of suppressed wages & salaries (which means people cannot save for a rainy day), and financialization, and part-time jobs, and reduced benefits, and deregulation (especially regarding Banking), and job insecurity.  As a result, we simply cannot weather much of any type of economic and/or financial storm.  The condition of our economy is almost always extremely precarious, and that's been true for years.  All it takes is one Black Swan to bring it down.

So, what are the general solutions to all of the above?  Specific solutions would have to be proposed by people with specific expertise in several fields.  In general, though, it seems to me the following would be helpful.  First (and I've said it many times here), we must stop drinking the Edward Bernays style Propaganda Kool Aid coming from Oligarchs (public & private) in both major political Parties.  Second, we must get rid of Neoliberalism; it benefits only the Rich and Powerful.  The rest of us get austerity.  Incidentally, in practical terms, there's very little difference between NeoCons and NeoLibs.  Third, we must recognize that our economy has been almost always a Mixed Economy, meaning a mixture of both capitalism and democratic socialism.  [See *** footnote below.]  In that system, unlike Crony-Casino-Derivative Capitalism or Totalitarian Socialism, we can have--- among other benefits--- both a strong economy and a well-prepared and strong public health complex.  It's all possible, but not without ignoring plutocratic propaganda.

*** For any who disagree with the contention that we have some socialism in our system, I offer this---  what do think public roads, public water systems, the VA Health Care System, Social Security, etc. are?  They are socialism in action. I would not prefer to have all roads/highways as private toll roads, maintained by a gazillion different private companies with a gazillion different prices/fees for use.  Would you?  Some utilities must be publicly maintained and operated or else the public, sooner or later, will wind up getting shafted.  Plus, for some things it's virtually impossible to have "competition" play any role at all.  For example, interstate highways--- do you believe that we could have a dozen or more roads--- side by side--- with different fees competing for your dollar, roads running from, say, L.A. to Chicago?  I don't think so.  That's why we have public roads, and that's democratic socialism.  Please get over any distaste for the word, "socialism".  It has been in our system for decades and decades.  Even in the 1800's, we had socialism for the Rich.  Railroads were given vast tracts of lands (on both sides of the tracks, extending way beyond what they needed just for construction) by the Fed Gov't because the politicians wanted to encourage such construction... they knew the value of the railroad system to the country.  Hence, a massive "Handout".  That's socialism.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Real "State of the Union" Rather Than the Don's Version

Isn't it incredible how Trump said that the Govt's unemployment, inflation, GDP, etc. numbers were all false just before he took office, but not long after he was sworn in, those numbers were all correct.  Plus, he's now claiming that the supposed "recovery" we're in is all due to his Administration's actions in the past year.  What he expects people to believe never ceases to amaze me.  The Corporate Media are every bit as bad in that respect as is Trump.  Let's take a brief look at how things really are in this great Land.
......................................................
1.   Unemployment---

The Feds have six measures of the unemployment rate and they label them U-1 through U-6.  U-3 is the one used as the "official unemployment rate".  Currently, that rate is 4.1%...but, there's a problem.   U-3 tends to underestimate the “true” extent of unemployment because those who have been unemployed and have given up on finding another job, or those who haven’t searched for a job recently, are not included in this category.

U-6 is closer to the truth.  This number measures not just the unemployed, but also those who would like to work full-time but are stuck with part-time and/or temporary work.  They are barely scraping by.  Since the Crash of 2008, U-6 has been (to varying degrees) over 11%...but, again there's a problem.  U-6 also is incomplete.  It excludes the long-term unemployed, those who have been out of the workforce for a year or more, have not searched for work in the most recent year, but would still like a job.  Many (probably most) of those people are so down and depressed that they've given up the search.

The point here is that the "official unemployment rate" is always incomplete.  The real rate is at least double, and usually higher than that.  Currently, if we use U-6 (which is more accurate, but still incomplete) the true rate of unemployment in the USA is somewhere in the double digits.  The Feds and the Corporate Media always promote the lower U-3 number.  If Trump were really a "rebel", he'd tell the truth; but he's a member of The Establishment.  The only difference between him and the rest of them is that he's unimaginably crass...ignorant, boorish, thoughtless, blundering, and tactless. 

2.  Inflation---

For many years, there has been a huge problem with the measurement of price inflation.  The Feds use something called "core inflation", which excludes the price changes in food and energy.  Hello...those are a fair-sized chunk of most peoples' expenses.  Years & years ago, food and energy were included.  Then the Feds decided that those commodities were too "volatile" to give an accurate picture.  Right.  So now we're stuck with an inaccurate measurement... usually a number that is way too low.

In addition, the Gov't does not include asset inflation...over-valued stocks, over-valued houses, etc.  Currently, both the Stock Market and the Housing Market are in giant Bubbles.  Today, stocks are more over-valued than they were in 2008... or even in 1929.

3.  Bizarre Derivatives---  

Because of a continuing lack of comprehensive Fed regulations & oversight, bizarre Financial Derivatives (such as credit default swaps, CDOs, synthetic CDOs, bespoke tranches, etc.) still threaten our economy & finances, as well as those of the entire world.  While it's true that the number & value of such derivatives most likely has been reduced, the amount still out in the Market is horrendous.  It's difficult to know the exact number because these are private contracts between Casino Capitalists.  Best estimates of analysts as to the amounts in the Market just before the 2008 Crash and now are:  about $1.4 quadrillion, and about  $700 trillion.  $700 trillion is way above the entire world's GDP...which is about $76 trillion.  Derivatives still have a high potential to crash the world.  And yet, there are no serious regulations to prevent that.

Not only are Crony/Casino Capitalists (not genuine Capitalists) still to some degree or another creating bizarre derivatives related to mortgages, but now they're doing the same with car loans and housing rent receipts.  The whole business is just plain nuts...and extremely dangerous.

4.  Stock Buy-Backs---

One reason the Stock Market is so over-valued is because many Corporations are buying back their own stocks.  That falsely inflates their value.  I suspect that will increase now that Trump & Congress have given the Upper Crust an immense, permanent Tax Cut.  [The rest of America received a much lesser temporary Tax Cut.]

5.  The Dollar---

Jim Rickards holds a degree in International Economics, he's an attorney, a former consultant to the CIA and Pentagon on economic matters, and a NYT best-selling author...twice.  According to him and his contacts, the IMF has launched a ten-year plan to replace the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.  Ultimately, that will be extremely bad news for our economy.  The way Trump alienates allies & trade partners, the situation will be even worse.

6.  Infrastructure---

According to the top Civil Engineers, our infrastructure is in dire need of repair/replacement.  During his election campaign, Trump announced he would get Congress to institute a big Infrastructure Program.  Where is it?  He's been in office over a year, already added (he and Congress) a potential one trillion dollars to our insane National Debt, but there's no Program...not even meetings about it.  Meanwhile, our bridges continue to rust, rot, & crumble, our trains run off the tracks, and our roads & highways continue to fall apart.  Not all of them at once, but still...it's a serious problem, and it's killing people.

7.  War & Nukes---

Sometime during the last ten years or so, and right up through the present day, the Powers-That-Be convinced each other that nuclear weapons actually can be used in warfare.  They justify such thinking by telling each other (and us, indirectly) that the weapons will be smaller, "tactical" nukes.  In their minds, that means it's feasible...with no serious, long-term effects.  This is unmitigated insanity.  What they apparently don't understand is that any such use of nukes would be a dangerous experiment with likely disastrous results.

The Obama Administration launched the ten-year Program designed to create these "tactical" nukes, but Trump is exacerbating the situation with his utter ignorance of science and statesmanship.  Not only the people of the USA, but the entire world as well should be protesting this idea in a massive way.

8.  Climate Change and Other Environmental/Health/Safety (EHS) Issues---

Trump & Crew are bound and determined to tear down Fed Gov't Regulations; they've already started that.  Those Regs are not just in the Business arena, but also in the EHS world.  I worked in the field of EHS regulatory compliance for several years, and I'll be the first to admit that some of those Regs are overlapping and need to be tweaked or even eliminated.  A few are not necessary, but most of them (the overwhelming majority) are necessary.  Without them, we'll have more pollution, sickness, injuries, and premature death.

Regarding Climate Change, there are too many variables in that scenario to say that human activity (mainly the generation of greenhouse gases) is the only cause of what's going on; however, there's plenty of evidence to state with certainty that human activity is contributing to the problem...most likely in a major way.  Given that, it makes sense to address the problem of greenhouse gases.  Because Corporation Powers consider such things to be "negative externalities", the only way to address the problem is through Regulations.

As to the Business world, and using only one example, does anyone seriously believe that the Financial Sector doesn't need to be regulated?  I hope no one believes that.

My point under this subtopic is simple:  things are not good, and getting worse every day.
.................................................
Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Powers-That-Be are Lying

The Oligarchs don't lie about everything, but there are several crucial subjects about which they do lie often.  Following are some of those.

1.  Price inflation is stagnant.  The State-Corporate Complex can say this with a straight face because when they figure how much prices have increased, here's what's not included:  the costs of food, housing, and energy.  Those items are not part of what's called "core inflation".  To give credit where it's due, the Powers-That-Be are correct regarding energy costs...even though those are not counted.  Oil has tanked, no pun intended; that's good, but a guy like me drives only about 20 miles per week.  "Low" gas prices don't make up for the constant increases in food and sundry grocery store items.  Manufacturers of those goods either are raising prices outwardly or doing it surreptitiously by shrinking the size of product packages.  Plus, rent for housing in the USA (with a few exceptions) is skyrocketing.  An old dog like me cannot believe how high rental costs are nowadays.

2.  Unemployment in the USA is now 5.X%.  This lie is so egregious as to make one physically sick.  Reputable, credible economists and former Fed Gov't officials all across the political spectrum estimate that the true unemployment rate is somewhere between 20% and 43%.

3.  The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement will be good for everyday Americans.  The details of that abomination now are finally public; some were released earlier by WikiLeaks, but now we have the entire disaster available for scrutiny.  The critics (such as Lori Wallach of TradeWatch) are saying, "It's worse than we expected.", and they were harsh critics before the full text was released.  I've written about this before, so I won't repeat myself.  The details of this miserable Treaty can be found in lots of places, not the least of which is Citizen.org/TPP.  Promotion of the TPP by many in Gov't, the Corporate Media, and various other Mega Corporations is proof positive that Oligarchs don't give a damn about us.

4.  We are not at War...it's "counter-terrorism"; therefore, Geneva Conventions, Due Process, the Constitution in general, Ethics, and even Morality do not limit us when dealing with "enemy combatants".  That lie is so outrageous and defies Logic so much that I'm beginning to think that George Orwell was the greatest political prophet in all of History...bar none.  The Powers-That-Be are trying to sell us on the concept that the people we're fighting are neither soldiers nor criminals.  Sorry, Oligarchs, they have to be one or the other.  The term, "enemy combatant" is a fiction.  Due Process applies to everyone, even soldiers or criminals.  If it doesn't, we no longer are civilized, ethical beings.

5.  It is necessary to monitor everyone in the National Surveillance State.  Good grief, that is pure, unadulterated Propaganda...it's bullshit to the Nth Degree.  Why people are buying into that is beyond my comprehension.  Have mercy.

6.  We are in an Economic Recovery.  That statement is so blatantly ridiculous it defies not only Logic, but the imagination as well.  All one has to do to see it's not true is take a little time to do a serious, critical study of our economic condition...utilizing a wide variety of credible sources while ignoring Propaganda from the State-Corporate Complex.  The USA, and most of the world, is in a deep Recession and heading for a Depression that very well may be worse than the one in the 1930's.
........................................................................................
It's important to keep in mind that when it's "crunch time", when Institutions are in a bind, any Institution will protect itself rather than individuals or Individual Rights.  Natural Rights, possessed by all people, will be sacrificed by any Oligarchy upon the altar of expediency.  It is Institutions that constantly must be monitored...by us.  Remember the words of an Eastern philosopher:  we be many; they be few.  That is precisely why we are inundated totally with Propaganda from the State-Corporate Complex.  It's important to us and future generations that we think critically, speak out, deny unwarranted power to Institutions run amok, boycott those entities that trash Natural Rights, and do it all peacefully.  Violent actions beget more violence and complete suppression of the individual.

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

How Bush and Obama Botched Iraq

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/losing-iraq/

This is one of the best and most revealing Frontline pieces ever constructed.  Key Generals, Diplomats, reporters, etc. give very frank accounts of the fiasco, and the accompanying film segments are outstanding.  The story shows not only the hubris of politicians, but also their utter ignorance.  If they aren't ignorant, then a very good case is made for the purposeful creation of perpetual war by both Republicans and Democrats. Given recent developments in Iraq and the U.S. response, this really is a MUST-SEE.

Goooood morning, Iraaaaaq.

The Arms manufacturers must be very pleased.  I just hope they haven't exported their factories to Mexico or Indonesia or somewhere else.  Unemployment here is higher than the Fed Gov't purports it to be.  :)

Be Well

A Few Propaganda Delusions in the USA

1. Unemployment is now at 8.5%. Facts--- When figuring unemployment, Feds do not include (because they can't) those who are no longer in "the system"--- such as those who have given up looking for work, and those who are grossly underemployed, and those who have temporary or part-time jobs. No one knows what the real number for unemployment may be, but it is certainly much higher than 8.5%.

2. The war in Iraq is over and our efforts were worthwhile. Facts--- Multiple, coordinated bomb attacks are ongoing; the Shiites and Sunnis are still at war with each other. Water and electricity still are not available 100% of the time in cities and towns. Almost two million Iraqis have emigrated from their country and they don't appear to be returning in any significant numbers. We still have a relatively small number of combat soldiers there. "Trainers" are combat soldiers. Finally, what happened to: "Iraqi oil will pay for most of our activities in Iraq."?

3. The dollar is still sound. [I'm not sure if the Oligarchs are pushing this falsehood anymore.] Facts--- In the last ten years, the dollar has lost 40% of its value. If you've had a bank savings account for the last ten years, 40% of the purchasing power in that account is gone. The dollar nowadays has no intrinsic value; its only value is that it's still (for the time being) the world's reserve currency. Several European countries, China, and Russia (and probably others I'm not aware of) are saying publicly that that has to change. According to them, the world will have a new reserve currency before too long.

4. The government of Iran is a threat to us and the world. Facts--- Iran is surrounded by military bases of the only country in history that has used nuclear weapons on civilians---and used them twice. No wonder they want a nuke. More to the point, the old USSR (whose leaders were at least as fanatical as those in Iran) had about 30,000 nukes; we were able to contain them. Iran is a lightweight compared to the old Soviets. The real reason we're rattling sabers at Iran is because, like Saddam did, they are preparing to accept Euros for oil---instead of dollars. That would not bode well for the health of the buck.

5. The Obama Administration works for all of us, especially the poor, the needy, the unemployed, the sick, the in-the-trenches military personnel, etc. Facts--- Our President is the best friend that the Oligarchs ever had. BP and other oil giants, health insurance companies, crooked investment bankers, and many other transnational corporations all have been served well by the current Administration. Example: they're all too big to jail after they commit crimes. Example: Obama expanded the war in Afghanistan and especially the secret wars in Yemen and Pakistan. [The one in Pakistan no longer is much of a secret.] Example: the President supports the actions of the Fed Reserve Chairman, who purposely has been devaluing the dollar for years. That negatively impacts us all.

Don't misunderstand, the Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats.

6. We elect Senators and Representatives; therefore, they represent us in a representative government. Facts--- This one is laughable. The last approval rating I saw for Congress was 9%---not 90%, but 9%. Now, thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court, election costs (including the Presidential election) can run into the billions of dollars---for a single election cycle. That's madness. The Oligarchs paying out those billions get their money's worth; they do not waste their large sums on the elections of people who will represent common folks. Surely we all know that. It should be an axiom. Our government no longer is representative in any sense of the word.

7. Finally, we live in a democracy. Facts--- The USA is (or was meant to be) a Republic. The differences between that and a democracy are significant. For example, in a democracy the emphasis is on the will of the majority; in a republic, the emphasis is on individual rights. In a republic, individual rights cannot be ignored simply because the majority so wishes in some specific instance. In a republic, one is free to do whatever one desires as long as the rights and property of others are not infringed upon. In a democracy, if the majority votes to give up a right (for example, the right to privacy or freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures), then all individuals must abide by that vote. That can only be done in a republic if the government resorts to Executive or Legislative Absolutism, which is exactly what has transpired in this country. In such a case, the republic ceases to exist.

One easily and accurately can argue that the USA no longer is a Republic. It was converted to a democracy primarily by Legislative Absolutism (passing laws with no regard for the limitations imposed by the Constitution), then became a Bribe-ocracy, and finally an Oligarchy or Plutocracy. In the current situation, nonelected Democrats and Republicans arguing over anything is both silly and pointless. The Oligarchs run the show.