Friday, February 28, 2020

Our Bubble Economy is About to Meet the COVID-19 Black Swan

Preface
I'm not a virologist or toxicologist; however, I do have a Biology and Environmental Science background, both academically and in the field.
Key terms in the title above---
COVID-19:  corona virus disease, 2019;
Black Swan:  "black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight."  ~ Investopedia
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Following are a few facts regarding covid-19, and some speculation on my part.

Facts---
1.  The virus is:  highly contagious, spreading rapidly, and too often deadly (especially in children and old people).
2.  The CDC has stated that there still are a lot of unknowns regarding exactly how this virus behaves.
3.  Except for Antarctica, the virus is now on every continent in the world.
4.  It's now in 50 countries.
5.  Confirmed cases in humans now number 82,550; confirmed deaths from the virus now number 2,810.
6.  Larry Kudlow of the Trump Administration stated that the corona virus epidemic was "fake news", and that the U.S. has the virus "tightly contained".  Trump has stated that China has the virus under control, and the risk to U.S. citizens is "very low". 
7.  The CEO of Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, recently stated that the corona virus (covid-19) is a Black Swan event for the world economy.
8.  The U.S. Stock Market is now down 13%.

Speculation---
1.  The Establishment (including Trump and the CDC) is scared to death to use the word "pandemic"...because of the effect it would have on the economy.
2.  A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease; therefore, covid-19 is a pandemic.  The Establishment would argue the numbers are not yet high enough to warrant that designation.  Okay, that's arguable, so at the very least, it's a pandemic in-the-making.  And the rapidity with which it spreads guarantees the making soon will be completed.
3.  Kudlow, Trump, et. al. are either flat-out lying or demonstrating a degree of ignorance beyond the pale.
4.  The private and public Powers-That-Be will do anything to keep the Bubble Economy rolling along on irrational exuberance.  They rarely will give us the truth regarding covid-19.
5.  This tiny virus very well could bring on our overdue economic & financial Crash.

Not only my opinion.  Be Prepared

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