The really bad news and the really good news regarding the Green Transition

 The following is based on the extensive work of the PhD Mining Engineer, Dr. Simon Michaux, who currently works for the Geological Survey of Finland.  I've posted a few other pieces about his work on this blog.  Look for his name in the Index to the right of this essay.

In addition to engineering, Michaux has an academic background in applied physics and applied geology.  He has collated a significant amount of existing global data on minerals, mining, energy use, and renewables.  The data then was analyzed and synthesized into a Report which easily could be called The Minerals and Materials Blindness on the Path to Sustainability.  The Report came out in 2021, and the title is:  Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels - and here's a link to it - https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf

Warning:  the Report is 1,000 pages long.  😊

Finland commissioned the Study, and is paying attention to it.  What I can gather from watching multiple interviews of Michaux (videos on YouTube), most other Powers-That-Be in the public sector are ignoring it.  Even if it's factual, most people don't want to hear anything "negative".

I've not yet had the time the read the entire Report, but I've skimmed the whole thing.  Here's a tiny bit of the really bad news.

Because wind and solar power currently make up only about NINE PERCENT of primary energy usage, recycling of needed minerals will not suffice for the first generation of a massive increase in renewable energy gizmos.  Mining will have to expand greatly.  The problem is:  according to Michaux's analysis, here's what that means relative to key minerals and rare earth elements (in renewables) fully replacing fossil fuels---

1)  it will take about 195 years of mining of copper;

2)  about 400 years of mining of nickel;

3)  about 1,780 years of mining of cobalt;

4)  about 60 years of mining of Terbium;

5) about 7,100 years of mining of Vanadium;

6) about 40 years of mining of Neodymium; and

7)  there are more, but you get the idea.

All the above (plus many more) are required for a complete Green transition.  There are approximately 1.4 billion vehicles in the world today.  To supply them with electricity, massive amounts of mining will have to take place over decades and decades.  Never mind necessary electricity for residences, manufacturing, recreation, etc.

If the Powers-That-Be relied upon Science instead of their political and economic Ideology (the "Market" will provide whatever is needed), they'd see that the current approach to Going Green is fatally flawed.  It must be significantly modified.  Our society must reduce economic throughput and transition to low energy use.  The energy binge we've been on for 150 years is not normal, and it's just about over.  Either we'll plan for such, or it will be forced upon us by Nature's Laws.

The really good news is that Dr. Michaux has compiled the beginning of a plan for a sustainable Earth on which all life survives and thrives.  The title is Restructuring the Circular Economy into the Resource Balanced Economy, and here's the link:

https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/3_2021.pdf  

This one is 126 pages...

Some of the Highlights---

• The "Circular Economy" (CE) - about which everyone is raving - does not fully account for the energy requirements of industrial society.
• The CE does not take into account materials which cannot be recycled or are lost to the environment (e.g., the soles of your shoes are worn off in microscopic bits over time, and cannot possibly be 100% recycled; another example - clay is used to make bricks, but bricks cannot be recycled to obtain clay).
• The CE does not account for the requirements and role of the mining of needed resources.  [The mining and smelting or refining of metals requires A LOT of energy and water.] 
• The CE primarily is based upon the recycling of materials.
• The "Resource Balanced Economy" (RBE) sprang from a much modified version of the old Resource Based Economy (of J. Fresco, and later, Peter Joseph).
• The RBE is a Steady State Economy which recognizes the folly of pursuing infinite ( & exponential) economic growth on a finite planet.
• Using Science rather than Ideology, the RBE Plan proposes a new system of resource accounting and allocation (which includes the health of ecosystems).
• The RBE Plan proposes a paradigm shift and systems approach in the management of raw materials and physical goods.
• The RBE Plan outlines the beginning of innovation and societal change which will lead to a sustainable and equitable existence.
• The RBE Plan correlates and interconnects the concepts of small-is-beautiful - economics as if people mattered (E.F. Schumacher), planetary boundaries (Johan Rockstrom), ecological overshoot (William E. Rees), the-great-simplification (Nate Hagens), and the-closing-circle - Nature, Man, and Technology (Barry Commoner).  

Make no mistake, Michaux is in favor of Going Green; however, like many others, he recognizes that Going Green while pursuing infinite growth is an oxymoron. 

At least have a look at the graphs and charts in the Plan.  From only that, you'll learn a lot.

.......................

Not only my opinion.  Happy Trails